In one line: Virtually similar to January, which is now a hawkish line.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Ignore volatility in major orders; the trend in core orders is still down.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rate in June, barring a big upside surprise in the inflation numbers.
- Markets now see 100bp-worth of cuts this year; we think the ECB is happy with this picture.
- Factory orders in Germany crashed in January, but mostly due to volatility in major orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The leap in exports is not backed by the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soft, but manufacturing likely will only be a small drag on Q1 GDP growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will open the door to a June rate cut this week, while emphasising the risk of sticky inflation.
- Staff projections will show a downgrade to the ECB’s headline inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
- Utility margins in the Eurozone are soaring; this will soon become a hot potato for policymakers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Is the door now shut on an April cut? Probably.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Is the door now shut on an April cut? Probably.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Hopes for a spring ECB rate cut have been dashed; we now see the first of four 2024 rate cuts in June.
- Services inflation in the Eurozone is still running hot; it likely won’t drop much below 3% this year.
- Absent a negative shock, underlying inflation in the EZ will struggle to return to 2% on a sustained basis.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Pegged back by a plunge in food inflation; the core HICP likely fell.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Inflation fell further, but less than we anticipated; January spending was resilient to plunge in auto sales.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation fell further in February, probably to 2.5%; we think core inflation dipped by 0.3pp, to 3.0%.
- Consumers’ spending in the EZ got off to a slow start in Q1, but don’t write off the recovery just yet.
- The Swiss economy defied our expectations in Q4, boosted by strong growth in domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Mixed, but consistent with a modest recovery in consumption growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE ECB IS DONE HIKING; EASING WILL BEGIN SOON
- ...WE STILL SEE A FIRST RATE CUT IN APRIL
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Investment crashed at the end of 2023.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A crash in investment weighed down the German economy in Q4; capex is set for a big fall in 2024.
- Consumers’ spending is now rebounding in Germany, in line with firming growth in real income.
- We now see zero growth in Germany this year, down from +0.3% previously; risks are to the downside.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Core inflation remains on track for 2% by summer, but beware Easter effects in March and April.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Core inflation remains on track for 2% by summer, but beware Easter effects in March and April.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Better, but rise in the PMI is at odds with the INSEE data.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
