Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Higher oil prices divide exporters and importers, as markets weigh the duration of Middle East tensions.
- The oil shock and a weak Imacec highlight Chile’s fragile growth, as manufacturing struggles…
- …Rate cuts, copper strength and fiscal consolidation shape the outlook, though geopolitics is the key risk.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- Brazilian Real — Risk-off shock erases February gains
- Mexican Peso — Hit by the geopolitical shock
- Chilean Peso — Middle East shock flips the narrative
- Brazil’s Q4 GDP confirms minimal growth, as capex plunges and private consumption stalls.
- Exports and agribusiness cushion activity, masking weak domestic demand and an investment collapse.
- The COPOM is set to ease gradually, but the oil shock clouds the inflation and policy outlook.
- In one line: Services rebounded, partly offsetting renewed weakness in manufacturing.
- In one line: Services rebounded, partly offsetting renewed weakness in manufacturing.
- Solid growth and contained inflation underpin Peru’s resilience despite intensifying political turbulence…
- …Strong buffers anchor confidence as upcoming elections delay fiscal and capex decisions.
- The oil-price surge reshuffles the currency outlook, but for now deeper regional fallout appears limited.
LATAM ACTIVITY STABILISES AS POLICY PATHS DIVERGE
- DISINFLATION PROVES UNEVEN, WHILE POLITICAL RISK INTENSIFIES
- In one line: Activity softened at the start of the year.
- In one line: Seasonal firmness, but disinflation remains intact.
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 upside surprise reflects education and transport seasonality, not renewed pressures.
- Core trends have stabilised near target, reinforcing scope for gradual COPOM easing from this month.
- Fiscal uncertainty clouds the rate-cutting pace despite soft activity, steady prices and BRL rebound.
- An agriculture-led rebound lifted Argentina’s Q4 growth, yet job gains remain limited and uneven.
- Inflation is picking up at the margin, testing the durability of the success seen in recent quarters.
- Fiscal surpluses anchor credibility, but market access hinges on sustained discipline and reform.
- In one line: Core pressures keep inflation near 4%, limiting Banxico’s room to ease.
- Food volatility lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying dynamics remain the policy constraint.
- Core inflation is moderating slightly, yet stickiness in services is keeping Banxico cautious about easing.
- Gradual disinflation supports rate cuts in Q2, though risks remain tilted modestly upwards.
- Mexico’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, driven by strength in services, and easing inflation.
- Retail sales and leading indicators improved, but job-market cooling tempers domestic-demand outlook.
- Banxico is pausing easing, as trade risk, fiscal tightening and sticky core inflation constrain the outlook.
- In one line: Retail sales ended 2025 on a firm footing.
- Consumption and fiscal expansion are driving activity in Colombia, while capex remains subdued.
- Imports surged ahead of weak exports, widening external deficits and exposing structural issues.
- Election uncertainty and wage shocks hinder monetary policy, prolonging tight financial conditions.
- In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.
- In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.
