Pantheon Publications

18 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Political risk rises as the electoral cycle intensifies

• Brazil — Polarised political outlook
• Colombia — Markets brace for next year's election
• Peru —  Stability but with political fragility

17 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's growth slows in Q4 as tight policy bites; BCRP likely to cut in Q1

• Broad-based weakness in industry and services offsets agricultural strength in Brazil…
• …Fiscal support is cushioning the slowdown; COPOM patience pushes back easing expectations to late Q1.
• Policy remains near neutral in Peru, as inflation is still anchored and growth is running close to potential.

16 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Kast's mandate signals Chile's return to discipline, and market confidence

• A landslide election resets Chile’s political cycle, restoring a pro-market-reform agenda.
• Early fiscal consolidation, tax reform and deregulation will test credibility and sustain the market rally.
• The benign macro backdrop and BCCh easing create a narrow window to lift capex and potential growth.

15 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's industry stabilises, just, but trade uncertainty clouds the outlook

• Mexico’s industrial rebound in October reflects only base effects and construction timing.
• Manufacturing remains under strain, as US demand softens and trade policy uncertainty freezes capex.
• USMCA-renewal and tariff risks will dominate industry’s performance more than domestic demand.

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, October, 2025

• In one line: Retail gains signal early stabilisation.

12 December 2025 LatAm Monitor COPOM holds as disinflation makes headway; is a January cut plausible?

• Benign inflation prints in Brazil strengthen the case for
  easing, yet de-anchored expectations force caution.
• Activity is softening without collapsing, supporting a
  gradual, data-dependent transition towards Q1 cuts.
• But external volatility, fiscal uncertainty and currency
  risks keep the bar to a January rate cut set high.

Global Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

11 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Equity Update November records, and cautious upside in 2026

• Brazil — Bull phase matures amid policy scrutiny
• Mexico — Underlying support holding
• Chile —  Testing resistance ahead of run-off election  

10 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation uptick signals caution, but Banxico still moving towards easing

• Temporary price shocks lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying pressures are modest…
• …Ongoing tariff risk and agricultural volatility keep the inflation risk balance tilted slightly to the upside.
• Inflation is improving in Brazil, but fiscal risk and tight job conditions will keep policymakers cautious.

9 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation softens slightly in Colombia, but risks remain tilted upwards

• Food deflation softened Colombia’s inflation, but sticky services and indexation are delaying disinflation.
• A widening external deficit and volatile financing flows underscore Colombia’s rising vulnerabilities.
• Minimum-wage pressures and firm domestic demand reinforce BanRep’s high-for-longer policy stance.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation stays contained, supporting a rate cut this month.

8 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's inflation holds steady, firming the case for further BCCh rate cuts

• Contained inflation with a broad-based moderation allows BCCh to resume gradual easing soon…
• …CLP strength, lower food and oil prices, and relatively soft demand support a benign disinflation outlook.
• Mexico’s ambitious wage push will strain productivity, intensify inflation risks, and test Banxico.

Global Datanote: GDP, Third Quarter, Brazil, 2025

• In one line: Growth almost stalls as industry steadies and agriculture rebounds.

PM Datanote: GDP, Third Quarter, Brazil, 2025

• In one line: Growth almost stalls as industry steadies and agriculture rebounds.

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, October, 2025

• In one line: Industrial recovery stalls again.

3 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial weakness deepens, strengthening case for BCB easing

• Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
• …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
• Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.

2 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile enters Q4 with firmer growth; political clarity will boost confidence

• The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
• …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer momentum heading into early 2026.
• Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.