Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Disinflation gains traction in Brazil, but sticky core inflation will keep COPOM on high alert.
- Energy and food drive relief to the headline number, but services and labour costs still pose inflation risks.
- BCCh holds rates at 4.75% as core inflation stays firm and labour market strains delay easing path.
- Brazil — Rally on easing inflation, election optimism
- Mexico — Upwards amid cautious optimism
- Colombia — Nears 13-year high on broad gains
- Headline inflation eases in Mexico, but sticky core services limit Banxico’s scope to ease.
- The Economic Package prioritises targeted capex, fiscal consolidation and sustained social spending.
- MXN strength and prudent debt management support stability; trade uncertainty restrains growth.
- Chile’s downside inflation surprise strengthens the case for a cautious 25bp policy rate cut today.
- Colombia’s inflation persists, as food and service components push the headline rate above 5%.
- BanRep remains cautious, with structural inflation drivers and fiscal reform clouding the policy outlook.
- Growth is steady in Chile, led by resilient services, a mining rebound and capex; net trade is a drag.
- Inflation is easing gradually, but sticky services prices and wage pass-through delay convergence to target.
- The fiscal deficit has widened, and labour market slack and political uncertainty cloud the outlook.
- Brazilian Real — Resilient, but volatility is persisting
- Mexican Peso — Stable, but capped by external noise
- Colombian Peso — Early rebound before consolidation
- Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth slowed sharply, as temporary supports fade and monetary tightening bites.
- Household consumption and services showed resilience, but capex saw renewed weakness.
- Peru’s inflation is firmly anchored, giving BCRP flexibility to balance demand and external uncertainty.
- Retail sales declined sharply in Brazil, with credit-sensitive segments under the most pressure.
- Services held firm up until June, but PMI data now point to a weakening trend.
- Consumer sentiment is fragile, and high interest rates continue to weigh on household spending.
- Mexico — Rally slows near resistance
- Argentina — Fragile rebound ahead of elections
- Chile — At record high, set for steady year-end gains
- Brazil's July IPCA undershot expectations, with the inflation rate easing to 5.2% from 5.4% in June…
- …Falling food and industrial goods prices, plus a stronger BRL, point to continued gradual disinflation.
- We expect the BCRP to hold at 4.50% this week, though a 25bp cut later this year remains possible.
- Chile's July CPI jumped, on electricity and services, pushing up inflation for the first time since March.
- BCCh launched an USD18.5B reserve accumulation plan to cut its reliance on a shrinking IMF credit line.
- Colombia’s inflation rose, as structural pressures persist, delaying the prospect of further rate cuts.
- Brazilian Real — Under strain as trade risk rises
- Mexican Peso — Holding firm amid headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks
- Chile's non-mining sectors remain robust, helped by strong consumption and improving investment.
- The slump in mining output is weighing on headline growth, but external demand and copper are buffers.
- Fiscal pressures are rising as revenues lag behind target, raising the risk of budget-tightening ahead.
- Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
- Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
- We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.
- The COPOM kept rates on hold and a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation and global risks…
- …US tariffs raise external threats, but exemptions soften the impact on Brazil’s key export sectors.
- BCCh resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, signalling a gradual return to neutral if warranted.
- Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
- Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
- …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.
- Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
- Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
- Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.
- Disinflation has resumed in Mexico, driven by softer food and energy prices; services are still a challenge.
- Favourable base effects, a stronger MXN and subdued demand continue to support disinflation.
- July data support a 25bp Banxico rate cut, as structural pressure limits the magnitude of easing.
- Mexico’s IGAE data show resilience, yet fading services and capex signal weak momentum into H2.
- Labour-market softness is deepening, with job creation stalling and real wage growth slowing further.
- Banxico is facing pressure to ease, but sticky core services inflation will constrain the pace of cuts.
- Consumer-driven momentum and services strength supported Colombia’s Q2 growth, but industry lags.
- The fiscal deficit is on track to breach 8% of GDP, with no credible correction in sight.
- Disinflation is set to resume in Mexico and Brazil, but structural pressures and trade risks persist.
