Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
- ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year.
- Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort.
- A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.
- Lower immigration, AI, tariffs and federal job cuts have potential to lift the natural unemployment rate...
- ...But firms are filling openings more easily and plan to slow wage growth, pointing to excess unemployment.
- No signs of excessive unemployment by state or by sector, indicative of a still-low equilibrium rate.
- Investors see a near-90% chance of the FOMC easing next week, back to levels before October’s meeting.
- Sometimes, the Chair moves markets during the blackout via the WSJ, but that seems unlikely now.
- Manufacturing payrolls have fallen materially in 2025, but likely aren’t a canary in the coalmine this time.
- The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
- China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
- The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
