Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
- The autumn slowdown in wage growth looks real; revisions after the second estimate tend to be small...
- ...But surveys point to a near-term re-acceleration, and the NLW hike looks set to have some bite.
- The unemployment rate is rising slowly; the MPC can’t be confident it is already above or near its equilibrium.
Samuel TombsUK
- Investors now attach a small probability to the MPC cutting Bank Rate by 50bp at one of its meetings.
- Almost one-third of Bank Rate cuts have been larger than 25bp, but the odds are low this year.
- Markets aren’t stressed, recession risks are easing and the MPC would prefer sub-2% to above-target inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP is on course to drop marginally in Q4, despite the rebound in November...
- ...The composite PMI picked up in December, but the retail, construction and health sectors all likely struggled.
- A recovery, however, should take hold soon; we look for 0.7% year-over-year growth in GDP in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The underlying trend still looks flat, but a genuine recovery will take hold this year.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline rate of CPI inflation likely remained at 3.9% in December, staying 0.7pp below the MPC’s MPR forecast.
- Core goods CPI inflation probably recovered a bit after November’s dip, but services inflation likely edged down.
- A base effect likely reduced accommodation services inflation; no reason to expect an erratic airfares outturn.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for flat employee numbers in December, a slight deterioration compared to earlier months in 2023...
- ...But October’s fall in AWE will be revised smaller, and public sector pay rises likely boosted AWE in November.
- The slowdown in wage growth likely will still be too mild for the MPC to change its tune at February’s meeting.
Samuel TombsUK
- Business surveys, employment and consumer borrowing data imply GDP is still on a rising trend.
- Output will rebound in many weather-sensitive sectors in November, after October’s bout of heavy rainfall.
- The impact of the fall in Covid booster jabs on health output will be largely offset by a hiatus in strike action.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still supporting the case for rate cuts, but wage growth likely will remain stronger than it implies.
Samuel TombsUK
- The economy had no momentum last year, partly because households’ saving ratio increased sharply...
- ...But many people have now replenished their savings; others benefited in Q4 from a jump in financial wealth.
- A revival in mortgage lending in 2024 will lower the saving ratio, ensuring spending rises more quickly than RHDI.
Samuel TombsUK
HOUSE PRICE NADIR IS JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AWAY...
- ...FALLING MORTGAGE RATES WILL LEAD TO A 5% RISE IN 2024
Samuel TombsUK
CPI INFLATION TO AVERAGE JUST 2.7% IN 2024...
- ...BUT THE MPC WILL WAIT UNTIL MAY TO CUT BANK RATE
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The trend in GDP was flat in 2023; expect a material improvement in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Borrowing in the first eight months of 2023/24 is currently estimated to have topped the OBR's forecast by £6B…
- ...But early borrowing estimates often are revised down, and lower RPI inflation will weigh on interest payments.
- The fall in interest rate expectations suggests Mr. Hunt has scope to cut taxes by about £15B in the Budget.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The consolidation is progressing well enough for modest tax cuts in the Budget.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline CPI rose at a three-month-on-three-month annualised rate of just 1.8% in November.
- The MPC won’t dismiss this as just noise; its new measure of underlying services inflation has slowed too.
- Stable producer prices and falling energy prices imply the headline rate will hit the 2% target as soon as May.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.
Samuel TombsGlobal
- In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.
Samuel TombsUK
- Timely indicators of house-purchase demand have strengthened, but not by quite enough to raise prices yet.
- House price indices still paint very different pictures; we expect the official index to be revised down.
- Demand, however, will recover further in Q1, as mortgage rates continue to fall; expect a 5% rise in prices in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Ofgem likely will reduce its default tariff cap by 10% in April, if wholesale prices remain at their current level.
- Current weights imply this will reduce the all-items CPI by 0.5pp; the drag might be larger after weight updates.
- The recent fall in oil prices has improved the CPI inflation outlook too; we expect it to average just 2.7% in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The composite PMI rose in December to a six-month high; consumers’ confidence is near a two-year high.
- This pick-up reflects rising real household disposable income, and possibly slowing savings replenishment.
- The MPC, however, needn’t stay very restrictive; the job market is loosening, and inflation pressures are fading.
Samuel TombsUK
