Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Samuel Tombs

4 April 2025 US Monitor Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff shock

  • The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
  • We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
  • The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.

Samuel TombsUS

3 April 2025 US Monitor Break-even payroll growth likely has stepped down, but only modestly

  • Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
  • ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
  • A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead. 

Samuel TombsUS

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Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence