Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
- The recent re-acceleration in growth in AHE looks like noise; few other timely gauges are picking up.
- Most reliable indicators of labor demand point to underlying wage growth falling below 4% soon.
- Wage growth won’t hold up Fed easing, provided Mr.Trump’s immigration bark is worse than his bite.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.3% rise in the November core CPI, leaving the inflation rate unchanged since June.
- Hotel and auto insurance prices likely picked up; residual seasonality threatens other services prices.
- The FOMC will ease policy again next week, but November data will bolster case for a January pause.
Samuel TombsUS
- Rising stock prices and other surveys point to a pickup in the Michigan confidence index this month...
- ...But a renewed rise in medium-term inflation expectations risks causing a headache for the Fed.
- A rise in the unemployment rate in November is still signalled by revised continuing claims data.
Samuel TombsUS
- November's meager rebound in payrolls implies the trend still is slowing; revisions will worsen the picture.
- The rise in NFIB's hiring intentions index is politics induced noise; demand for new staff is very weak.
- The unemployment rate is on a steady rising trend; an immigration rush before new rules will reinforce it.
Samuel TombsUS
- Continuing claims data, after revisions, are a good guide to the trend in short-term unemployment...
- ...But unemployment is more broadly defined and is subject to large sampling error; noise can dominate.
- Residential construction payrolls look likely to plunge, given the ongoing slump in homebuilding.
Samuel TombsUS
The first estimate of job postings is noisy; labor demand is still weakening.
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the pick-up in job openings; less volatile data from Indeed point to an ongoing downward trend.
- Low net hiring throughout October suggests payroll growth slowed primarily due to underlying weakness.
- ADP's data is a useless guide to the official estimate of private payrolls, including for every specific sector.
Samuel TombsUS
- Downward revisions to payrolls have been biggest in sectors with above-average shares of small firms.
- ADP and JOLTS data also suggest small businesses have slowed hiring more than large corporations.
- The manufacturing sector is showing signs of life, but major headwinds remain.
Samuel TombsUS
- Expect an unconvincing 250K gain in November jobs; October weakness was more than Milton and strikes.
- The low response rate for October's estimate adds to uncertainty over the size of November's recovery...
- ...But household survey and claims data also suggest October’s slowing had little to do with bad weather.
Samuel TombsUS
