Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
- The share of total consumption by the top 20% has been remarkable stable at 40% over the last 25 years.
- New sectoral data show no connection between the spending share of the top 20% and growth last year.
- High-income households became more cautious, accumulating liquid assets more quickly than in 2024.
Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.
Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.
- Headline GDP growth in Q4 was depressed by the federal shutdown; underlying growth was robust.
- Consumers, however, will slow down this year and non-AI capex will remain weak.
- The effective tariff rate will be slightly lower under the new tariffs, but the inflation outlook is little changed.
Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.
JANUARY PAYROLLS ARE JUST A FLASH IN THE PAN...
- ...SLOW JOB GAINS & LOWER INFLATION WILL SPUR EASING
- The blowout in the trade deficit and revisions to the inventories numbers point to 2% GDP growth in Q4...
- ...but final sales to private domestic purchasers likely rose by about 21/2%, in line with previous quarters.
- Core PCE inflation likely undershot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4, mostly due to measurement issues.
Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.
- The recent stabilization in building permits probably will be short-lived, given the inventory overhang…
- …Residential construction spending and employment look set to remain under pressure.
- Rising industrial production is mostly due to AI and aircraft demand, not an emerging tariff boost.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
- Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
- New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.
- In one line: Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- Payrolls were lifted by mild weather in early January and an implausible boost from the birth-death model.
- Indicators of underlying labor demand remain subdued, implying February’s print will be much weaker.
- We still look for a 75bp easing of Fed policy in 2026, but have pushed the first cut to June, from March.
- December’s soft retail sales point to a slowdown in growth in consumers’ spending in Q4.
- Meager income gains, subdued confidence and low saving imply spending growth will slow further in ‘26.
- Capex intentions remain extremely weak, despite the easing of Fed policy.
- We look for a 0.6% rise in December headline retail sales, underpinned by solid auto and control sales...
- That’s consistent with consumers’ spending rising by just over 3% in Q4...
- ...But soft income growth, depressed confidence and a rock-bottom saving rate point to weakness ahead.
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.3% rise in the core, despite residual seasonality.
- Web-scraped data point to slowing durable goods prices; Winter Storm Fern likely hit clothing prices.
- Increases in prices for streaming services, live events and rent likely were all much smaller than a year ago.
- Openings fell in December to their lowest level since September 2020; AI is weighing more on hiring.
- Small business openings are falling, casting doubt over the upbeat payrolls signal from the NFIB survey.
- The quits rate still points to a further decline in wage growth this year; the Fed has room to ease further.
