Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Samuel Tombs

4 August 2025 US Monitor Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely

  • Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
  • Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
  • The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
Samuel TombsUS

1 August 2025 US Monitor Consumers' spending to stagnate as real incomes flatline

  • The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
  • Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
  • We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
Samuel TombsUS
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Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence