Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
- ...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
- Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.
- Inflation in Brazil exceeded expectations in March, due mainly to food, as weather and supply shocks persist.
- Activity data point to solid momentum, but industrial output is dropping and leading indicators softening.
- Fiscal risk and BRL weakness complicate COPOM’s task, despite signs of inflation pressures easing ahead.
- China’s export growth bounced back in March, due to a pick-up in activity after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The increase in shipments was particularly strong to traditional markets, the G7 and the EU.
- President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on electronic goods gives Chinese exports a breather.
- Re-routing could lead to a bigger EZ trade surplus with the US, increasing the risk of higher US tariffs…
- ...One of the ways to stem the flow would be for the EU to hike its tariffs on China; it prefers not to.
- The EU is at great risk of being pulled into the US-Sino trade war, whether it wants to or not.
- Official house prices rose sharply in January, taking year-over-year house price inflation to a two-year high.
- House price inflation will ease to 4.0% year-over-year in December, as higher stamp duty curbs demand.
- Better affordability as markets price more rate cuts will be offset by weaker employment.
Government bond issuance still taking centre stage, with modest uptick in household loans
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
- In one line: Solid February bounce, but underlying weakness remains
In one line: Before the tariff shock; what happens next?
- In one line: On hold amid global uncertainty, but door remains open to cut.
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
- Doomsday takes on the future of EM Asia ex-China are overblown, even if the “reciprocal” tariffs return…
- …They’d still give the China+1 wave an inadvertent boost; cheap labour won’t disappear overnight.
- Taiwan’s exports softened in March but remain in double digits, as apparent front-loading continues.
- China acted as the adult in the room on Friday, saying it will not match any further US tariff hikes.
- This is hopefully the escalation off-ramp, paving the way for bilateral talks, probably in several months.
- Still, tariffs will likely remain high, hurting exports, worsening excess supply and so prolonging deflation.
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
- Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
- ‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.
- GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
- …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
- The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.
- In one line: Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.
In one line: Industry still supported Italian GDP in Q1.
