Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Ankita Amajuri (Eurozone Economist)
- EV batteries are not included in the 70% content requirement for an EV to be ‘Made in Europe’.
- Local sourcing requirements risk making EU cars more expensive just when they need to be cheaper.
- The EU’s subsidies for buyers are no match for China’s subsidies for manufacturers.
- The SNB left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, despite raising its inflation forecasts.
- Our 2027 inflation forecasts are still higher than the Bank’s; we think a rate hike is likely in 2027.
- Uncertainty around our call is high and financial markets expect a rate hike later than we do.
- The SNB will leave rates on hold throughout 2026, unlike its neighbouring central bank, the ECB.
- The SNB’s Q2 projections for inflation in the medium term will be slightly higher than before.
- We expect the Chairman to reiterate the SNB’s willingness to curb the strength of the CHF.
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
In one line: SNB to stand pat through 2026 as the economy faces stagflation.
In one line: Q1 growth undershoots expectations; labour market holding up, for now.
In one line: Q1 growth undershoots expectations; labour market holding up, for now.
In one line: The energy shock will hurt Italian growth more than other major EZ economies.
In one line: Beats expectations, but this strength won’t last
In one line: Inflation expectations soar, sentiment slumps.
In one line: Broad-based fall in confidence; inflation expectations soar.
- Swiss headline inflation is likely to pick up further as the disinflationary impact of the strong CHF eases.
- Second-round effects from the energy shock on core prices now look increasingly likely.
- The Swiss economy looks set for a spell of stagflation, just like its Eurozone neighbours.
In one line: Expectations in April 2026 even poorer than after “Liberation Day” in April last year.
In one line: No signs of Germany’s infrastructure spending spree before the energy shock.
- Italy risks breaching the EU’s 3% deficit-to-GDP rule in the event of a prolonged energy shock.
- Spain’s budget stalemate since late 2022 gives it the fiscal firepower to mitigate the hit to its economy.
- Borrowing costs could climb higher still, but policy backstops will keep EZ bond markets relatively calm.
In one line: EZ industry was probably a drag on Q1 growth.
In one line: Industrial production likely fell over Q1.
In one line: Spanish industry was performing poorly even before the energy shock.
In one line: Decline will be exacerbated over the coming months.
- Higher energy prices in March more than offset the disinflationary impact of the strong Swiss franc.
- But a decline in domestic inflation kept the headline rate from rising as much as the consensus expected.
- Headline inflation will rise further this year, as domestic price pressures are building.
