Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economist)
- In one line: Export growth remains eye-wateringly high.
- Taiwan’s exports exploded by 56% in November, far above expectations, driven by AI server demand…
- …We are now upgrading our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 12.0%, the highest this millennium.
- Philippine sales volumes continue to slump; only so much borrowing and remittances can do.
- Early signs suggest there could be a moderation in Malaysia’s Q4 GDP, but risks are to the upside.
- In the longer term, supply side factors are likely to weigh on growth, due to poor capital stock growth.
- That said, we see the government pulling numerous policy levers to raise this.
- In one line: Motor sales contract a lot less.
The AI tide is finally lifting Malaysian exports
- Taiwan’s exports hit a record $61.8B in October, up 49.7% yearly, driven by surging AI and US demand.
- Investors are more uneasy as Big Tech firms ramp up AI-related capex, shifting to debt financing…
- …A correction in tech valuations could ensue, which would culminate in a fall in Taiwan’s exports.
- In one line: Export growth continues to shock to the upside.
- In one line: Probably the boost from the autumn moon festival.
- In one line: Resilience to US tariffs, give no reason to cut rates.
- In one line: Resilience to US tariffs, give no reason to cut rates.
- In one line: Softer, but still beating expectations.
- In one line: Back in contraction.
- Taiwan retail sales slipped back into contraction in September, as motor sales plunged yet again.
- Strong economic growth contrasts sharply with sluggish wages and weak household spending…
- …Nonetheless, exports should stand out in next week’s Q3 GDP data; we expect an acceleration.
Cost-push pressures are pushing up Malaysian inflation
Rebound in mining and quarrying boosts Malaysia’s Q3 GDP past expectations
Export growth accelerates to one of the fastest rates this year
- Taiwan's retail sales growth finally rebounded, to +0.4% in August, after months of constant falls.
- This was supported by a milder drop in auto sales, which could recover if a US trade deal is agreed.
- All told, still-weak consumption reflects flat wages,a soft property market and slumping tourism.
- Taiwan's central bank kept the discount rate at 2.000% yesterday, which was no surprise to anyone.
- Economic growth is likely to be much stronger in Q3; we have upgraded our forecast to 8.4%.
- Strong export growth is reducing the need for a rate cut, notwithstanding weak consumption.
- Emerging Asian countries have announced national strategies to enter the semiconductor market.
- We think they will be unlikely to gain a meaningful foothold in manufacturing semiconductors.
- If they play to their strengths, however, they could attract capital to other parts of the supply chain.
- Taiwan is experiencing a boom in demand for its electronics, namely semiconductors and AI servers.
- These are key components in the large data centres being built by Big Tech firms in the AI arms race.
- Taiwanese exports are likely to stay strong if Big Tech continues with its capex plans.
- Taiwanese GDP growth rose to 8.0% in Q2, from 5.5%, driven by extremely strong exports…
- …Other components were basically non-existent; investment suffered a sharp slowdown.
- Exports may not be driven purely by front-loading, as genuine demand exists for chips, thanks to AI.
