Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Meekita Gupta (Asia Economist)
Brace for more eye-wateringly strong export growth in Malaysia.
Unsurprising up-tick in Malaysian inflation.
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore smashed expectations in April, hitting 24.5%...
- …Thanks to continued growth in electronics exports, but also other random unexpected spikes.
- Malaysian CPI ticked up slightly in April, but the more important core inflation moderated.
- Malaysia may be heading for an early election, but beneath the surface ethnic tensions are brewing.
- These tensions are coupled with rising religious conservatism, particularly among Malaysia’s youth.
- Governance is likely to become more religious, to fend off Islamist parties, hurting long-term growth.
- Malaysia retail sales growth moderated slightly in March but remained robust in Q1 overall.
- This was before the onset of the Middle East crisis though, which will hang over Q2 sales.
- This pressure will be compounded by the government’s gradual withdrawal of fuel subsidies.
Another quarter of lacklustre consumption in Malaysia
- In one line: Moderating; finally.
- In one line: Potentially the peak.
- In one line: No surprises.
- In one line: No surprises.
- In one line: Smashing expectations, again.
- Taiwan’s Q1 GDP growth reached new heights, at 13.7%, smashing all expectations...
- …Consumption has been stronger than expected since Q4, but we think this is a false flag.
- We still expect GDP growth to moderate in 2026, due to the Iran war and high base effects.
- We were correct about Singapore’s GDP growth moderating sharply in Q1; it fell to 4.6%…
- …The MAS increased the rate of appreciation for its policy band; it is rightly worried about inflation.
- Malaysian GDP growth cooled in Q1, as widely expected, with services slowing sharply.
Malaysian electronic exports are down, just when commodities perk up
- We think GDP growth in Singapore will slow to 3.0% this year, with risks tilted to the downside.
- Singapore has cemented its role as a financial hub in Asia, which has been helped by policy...
- ...But further expansion could be limited if Hong Kong manages to lure back banks and workers.
- In one line: Not as bad as we all thought.
- In one line: Q1 consumption remains firm.
- Singapore’s combined January-to-February CPI suggests that inflation is still ticking up in Q1...
- …We note an alarming increase in health insurance premiums, which is being reined in for Q2.
- The Middle East energy crisis looks set to push inflation above 2% in Q2.
Inflation broadly accelerating in Singapore in Q1
Malaysian headline export growth in Q1 still up from Q4, despite February miss
Inflation at bay, for now
