Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Meekita Gupta (Asia Economist)
- In one line: Another no-move meeting, with optimism building.
- Malaysian exports blew past expectations in December; analysts underestimated the AI boom...
- …We have upgraded our 2026 GDP forecast, as we think AI demand will remain firm for some time.
- Malaysia’s inflation ticked up in December, but we consider this a one-off not a re-acceleration.
AI boom saves Malaysian exports
Malaysian inflation shows a surprise rise
- Malaysia’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.7%, largely because of export manufacturing...
- …This bolsters our call for the BNM to hold rates this Thursday, saving policy space for later.
- We think economic growth should be stronger in 2026, but this is contingent on the AI boom.
- In one line: Export growth eases, but Q4 GDP remains on track for a millennia-high.
Sales growth in Malaysia dips
- Singapore ended 2025 strongly, with GDP growth accelerating to 5.7% in Q4, from 4.3% in Q3.
- Manufacturing drove the uptick, led by pharmaceuticals and electronics exports…
- …We think the headline was inflated by tariff-related front-loading that could fade in coming quarters.
- Taiwan’s CBC held rates steady last week; strong growth has removed the need for easing…
- …Still, growth is increasingly precarious, with exports—and GDP—heavily reliant on the AI boom.
- The silver lining is the CBC can now save a rate cut for when a genuine shock materialises.
- In one line: No rate cut needed.
Malaysian retail sales are pretty static, again.
- In one line: Export growth remains eye-wateringly high.
- Taiwan’s exports exploded by 56% in November, far above expectations, driven by AI server demand…
- …We are now upgrading our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 12.0%, the highest this millennium.
- Philippine sales volumes continue to slump; only so much borrowing and remittances can do.
- Early signs suggest there could be a moderation in Malaysia’s Q4 GDP, but risks are to the upside.
- In the longer term, supply side factors are likely to weigh on growth, due to poor capital stock growth.
- That said, we see the government pulling numerous policy levers to raise this.
- In one line: Motor sales contract a lot less.
The AI tide is finally lifting Malaysian exports
- Taiwan’s exports hit a record $61.8B in October, up 49.7% yearly, driven by surging AI and US demand.
- Investors are more uneasy as Big Tech firms ramp up AI-related capex, shifting to debt financing…
- …A correction in tech valuations could ensue, which would culminate in a fall in Taiwan’s exports.
- In one line: Export growth continues to shock to the upside.
- In one line: Probably the boost from the autumn moon festival.
- In one line: Resilience to US tariffs, give no reason to cut rates.
