Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in August, as an erratic fall in mining output drags on growth…
- …Services activity likely saved GDP from a fall, with rebounds in large sub-sectors boosting growth.
- We think that underlying economic activity remains firm, which will keep the MPC on hold this year.
- Gilt auctions are still well supported, and financial conditions are orderly, despite high uncertainty…
- ...but yields will remain high as the MPC stays on hold and markets demand a premium for political risk.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year gilt yields to end 2025 at their current rates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
- In one line: Manufacturing output will slowly recover in the coming months.
- Data in the past month have been a mixed bag, but underlying activity is holding up well.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Solid growth will limit the emergence of spare capacity, keeping the MPC on hold for the rest of 2025.
- Consumers’ confidence fell in September but remains higher than the economic fundamentals would imply.
- Optimism among younger demographics is supporting consumers’ confidence.
- The November Budget and inflation averaging 3.3% over the coming year represent risks to sentiment.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices dropped by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July.
- Forward-looking indicators for the housing market suggest that activity will remain muted in H2.
- The November Budget represents a wild card for house prices, as rumours of property-tax hikes swirl.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in September and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3...
- ...But the PMI has been more erratic lately than usual, so we retain our call for growth of 0.2% in Q3.
- Easing price pressures will encourage the MPC, but solid growth will limit emergence of spare capacity.
- The public finances deteriorated in August; borrowing is now drifting well above profile.
- Weak receipts account for most of the fiscal underperformance so far this year.
- We think the Government has to raise £25B to restore the paltry £9.9B of fiscal headroom.
- In one line: Modestly deanchored inflation expectations warrant caution from the MPC.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 10K in July and August, assuming the usual revisions.
- Vacancies are stable or recovering according to private-sector data; the official data will follow suit.
- Pay growth is moderating only slowly as high inflation expectations and stabilising jobs sustain wage gains.
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in July, as services output and industrial production stagnate.
- Activity in the construction sector likely fell, following the lead from chronically weak business sentiment.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, with risks skewed up.
- The PMI rose to a 12-month high in August, boosted by falling policy uncertainty.
- The PMI signals 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q3, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The MPC’s hands will be tied for the rest of 2025, as growth at potential limits spare capacity emerging.
- The yield curve has steepened sharply since our last gilt market update in April, driven by higher real rates.
- A reduction in the pace of QT from October has the potential to support the long end at the margin.
- Acute fiscal risks mean we raise our year-end target for yields across the curve.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity looks subdued but stable, it should recover in H2.
- Cautious guidance and strain on long-dated gilts suggest the MPC will slow the pace of QT.
- We expect rate-setters to opt for a reduced pace of £70B-per-year for the next 12 months from October.
- Level of reserves in the system is high, but use of the short-term repo facility indicates demand for liquidity.
- The insolvency rate remains low and steady, indicating that corporate distress is contained.
- Leading indicators suggest that insolvencies will remain around current levels in the coming months.
- Solid GDP growth and falling borrowing costs will limit corporate distress in H2.
- Another week of hawkish data makes the MPC’s August cut look increasingly like a mistake.
- Inflation is too sticky and growth too strong for another rate cut any time soon.
- Market pricing has moved significantly closer to our call for the MPC to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
- The PMI beat expectations and rose to a 12-month high in August.
- August’s flash PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q3.
- Sticky inflation and strong growth mean the MPC will need to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
- Food, energy-price increases and an erratic jump in airfares drove CPI inflation up to 3.8%.
- Underlying services inflation is easing but remains far too high for the MPC to cut rapidly.
- Headline CPI averaging 3.8% for the rest of 2025 means the MPC will have to stay on hold.
- Sterling has had a mixed year so far against peers, as policy uncertainty has soared.
- We expect less easing than the market, but fiscal worries will weigh on sterling come Budget time.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.35 and GBPEUR at 1.18 at end-2025.
