Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- We expect GDP to rise by 0.1% in September, boosted by solid retail sales and car registrations.
- Industrial production likely cut 8bp from GDP growth in September as a cyber attack halted autos output.
- Resilient economic activity means the MPC has little scope to cut quickly in 2026, in our view.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to be unchanged month-to-month in October.
- The bulk of evidence points to employment growth stabilising as the hit from payroll-tax hikes fades.
- Private pay growth should slow further, encouraging MPC doves that they can cut rates in December.
- The insolvency rate has plateaued above pre-pandemic levels but is unthreatening.
- We see little indication that higher insolvency rates will lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.
- Insolvency numbers will fall as businesses adjust to higher interest rates and GDP growth holds firm.
