Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- We now expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% in April from 3.3% in March, in line with the MPC’s call.
- But our forecast is close to rounding down to 2.9%, and uncertainty is high, with many price resets.
- Smaller water-bill and vehicle-tax hikes than in 2025 will slow inflation, but rents will rise by more this April.
Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.
- In one line: Food price pressures at the margin are collapsing.
- In one line: Food price pressures at the margin are collapsing.
In one line: People curbed spending in response to fuel price hikes in March
Sales growth is souring in Indonesia, for a handful of reasons
- US - Hiring plans too weak for recent payrolls momentum to be sustained
- Eurozone - How to find the AI boom in the EZ macroeconomic data
- UK - Underlying GDP growth likely resilient in March
- China+ - Beijing sets terms for Xi-Trump summit amid ongoing Iran tensions
- EM Asia - Dubious leap in public spending behind Indonesia’s Q1 GDP beat
- Latam - Mexico’s headline inflation under control, but core still sticky
- April’s 0.38% rise in the core CPI was driven by one-time jumps in rents, airline fares and tax services.
- Surveys point to bigger rises in core goods prices, but apparel prices will fall from weather-boosted levels.
- Measures of new rents have stalled; we look for 0.20% rises in the core CPI over the next three months.
- Food, fuel and services inflation in Brazil continue to rise, complicating the COPOM’s easing.
- Extractive industries and autos are supporting activity, while manufacturing and capex remain weak.
- Higher oil prices and still-elevated real rates are exposing the fragile composition of growth.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia slowed in March, but Q1 overall was the best quarter in two years.
- The historically tight job market is finally reviving wage growth, but cracks are surfacing in the former.
- Income-used data continue to show rising caution, with the share for savings now above average.
- A fuel-duty cut will keep German headline inflation in check in May, but we still see a rise to 3% soon…
- …Services inflation in Germany was pulled lower by a plunge in airfares in April; this will reverse in May.
- Italian industry ended Q1 on a strong note; ZEW investor sentiment rebounded in May.
- The gilt sell-off has further to run if Sir Keir Starmer is forced out of office in the next few weeks.
- We expect the initial payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month drop in April.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.9% in March, and private pay growth should be unchanged.
- Malaysia retail sales growth moderated slightly in March but remained robust in Q1 overall.
- This was before the onset of the Middle East crisis though, which will hang over Q2 sales.
- This pressure will be compounded by the government’s gradual withdrawal of fuel subsidies.
- The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
- We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
- Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.
- Services inflation and labour-cost indexation are driving higher inflation in Colombia.
- Food and weather shocks add pressure, but excess demand increasingly dominates the outlook.
- BanRep likely will continue to hike, as persistent inflation will require more action ahead.
- China’s consumer inflation rose 0.2pp to 1.2% in April, on the back of fuel-price rises.
- The government will continue to soften the impact of high international energy prices on end-users.
- Industry is likely to bear the brunt of higher energy costs, amid still-sluggish domestic demand..
- Strong growth in IP investment, ex-Ireland, and capex in IT show the AI theme in the EZ macro data.
- The US is sprinting ahead on AI investment, while Europe is still walking, barely…
- …ECB data suggest US digital investment is up 80% since 2020, compared with no change in the EZ.
- We expect CPI inflation to slow to 2.9% in April from 3.3% in March.
- Utility prices fell 6.6% in April, and a range of government-set prices will rise less than a year earlier.
- Our CPI inflation call is 0.1pp lower than rate-setters expect, but we match their services inflation forecast.
In one line: China trade surplus hit by soft exports and hi-tech driven imports
In one line: BoK stays put, leaving canvas blank for incoming Shin amid war-induced growth and inflation risks.
