- A rebound in manufacturing and services lifted Mexico’s output in April, but momentum is weak.
- Consumption faces pressure from high rates, labour-market stress, and fading support from remittances.
- Colombia’s proposed ballot sidesteps legal processes, raising institutional fears.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
- …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
- Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
- Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
- The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EZ PMI held steady in June, and averaged broadly the same in Q2 as in Q1…
- ...But EZ GDP will not repeat its 0.6% growth in Q1; we look for GDP to stagnate this quarter.
- Demand is recovering but, once tariff front-running ends, will likely correct; price pressures are easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI’s headline activity index rose in June but still signals unchanged quarter-to-quarter GDP in Q2…
- …But we think the PMI continues to underestimate activity and retain our call for GDP growth of 0.2%.
- The services output balance fell sharply in June, but that drop looks erratic; the MPC will wait for clarity.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…
THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Recovery from March and April’s drops has ended already
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
- - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
- Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
- We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
- The COPOM defied consensus, raising the Selic to 15.00%, and signalled a hawkish extended pause.
- Persistent inflation and deanchored expectations are keeping Brazil’s policy tight despite activity slowing.
- Chile’s BCCh paused again; easing will depend on data amid resilient growth and global headwinds.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
