Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
- Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
- The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.
- U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
- We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
- The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
- …BUT ONLY ONE MORE CUT THIS YEAR IS THE RIGHT CALL
- We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
- We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
- Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
- Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.
