Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Falling interest rates and a healthy consumer will support car registrations.
- In one line: Growth has been steady, if unspectacular, once we account for the PMI’s excess sensitivity to uncertainty.
- The ONS overstated April CPI by 0.1pp because of an error in Vehicle Duty; this will be corrected in May CPI.
- We adjust our forecasts only fractionally because we had assumed a good chance that VED was wrong.
- Strong goods prices mean inflation should slow only to 3.4% in May, from the erroneous 3.5% in April.
- The May PMI shows UK growth still weak, but recovering as April’s tariff panic fades.
- GDP growth usually far exceeds the PMI steer when uncertainty is high; we look for 0.3% q/q growth in Q2.
- Services firms squeezing margins holds out the hope of inflation easing, but we think it’s just a blip.
- In one line: Falling saving and more borrowing supporting consumption should keep GDP growth ticking along despite a drag from investment.
- In one line: Manufacturing is past the worst as tariff uncertainty fades.
- In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.
- Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
- Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
- Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
- A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.
STRONG MOMENTUM, ELEVATED INFLATION...
- …BACK TO ONLY ONE MORE RATE CUT THIS YEAR
