Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Growth in the first half of the year looks well-balanced once we average out tariff and tax front-running.
- Downward revisions to the saving rate in 2022-to-23 suggest the latest figures will also be cut eventually.
- Sharp falls in the profit share are likely to be partly resolved by price hikes later this year and in 2026.
- Accelerating corporate borrowing growth and strong consumer credit bode well for August GDP.
- Bank lending to firms is rising at the fastest rate since at least 2012, if we ignore pandemic disruption.
- Solid credit flows and a robust housing market suggest interest rates are only slightly restrictive.
- In one line: Little news, as underlying services inflation settling in the low-4%'s will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of this year.
- In one line: A slightly more cautious MPC will keep rates on hold for the rest of the year.
- In one line: House price inflation will remain weak as the Budget weighs on sentiment.
- In one line:Ms. Reeves has a revenue problem.
- In one line:Retail sales head for a solid Q3 and growth will likely be revised up.
- In one line: Strong personal finances will help consumers keep spending.
- A stabilising labour market and sticky underlying inflation support out call for no more rate cuts.
- Hawkish details in the MPC minutes raise the bar to another cut this year.
- Awful public finance data reduce the chance that Chancellor Reeves will soften duty hikes next year.
- The MPC kept rates on hold at September’s meeting, as consensus and the markets expected.
- The minutes were fractionally more hawkish than in August; we continue to expect no more cuts this year.
- The pace of quantitative tightening will be slowed to £70B in 2025/26, from £100B in 2024/25.
- Lower airfare inflation offset higher food and motor fuels, leaving CPI inflation at 3.8% in August.
- Underlying services inflation accelerated to 4.3%, from 4.2% in July, where it will stay until the spring.
- We expect CPI inflation to hit 4.0% in September—with upside risk—and then ease only slowly.
- In one line: The underlying trade balance fell erratically in July, but it will remain weak.
- In one line:Q3 growth on track for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Payroll falls are easing as firms complete their adjustment to tax and minimum wage hikes.
- Q2 workforce jobs data suggests payrolls exaggerate weakness, while the unemployment rate is steady.
- A stabilising labour market with firm wage growth will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year at least.
- Policy U-turns, a small growth downgrade and higher gilt yields will consume the Chancellor’s headroom.
- We expect the Chancellor to rebuild her £9.9B margin of headroom with stealth, ‘sin’ and duty hikes.
- The Budget will have a minimal impact on the MPC as the adjustments will be backloaded to 2029/30.
- GDP was unchanged in July as an erratic fall in industrial output offset rising services.
- Underlying GDP growth looks solid to us; little spare capacity will emerge in the economy.
- We expect a hawkish week ahead, with the August data to show stabilising jobs and rising inflation.
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 vote to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
- Rate setters are focused on inflation which is proving persistent, while job falls should ease.
- We look for rate setters to slow QT to £70B a year from October, with sales skewed to shorter durations.
- In one line: Job falls ease sharply but spare capacity is still building in the labour market.
- In one line: Retail spending can power another solid quarter of economic growth in Q3.
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.9% in August from 3.8% in July, but only just on the rounding.
- Stronger food, motor fuel and hotel prices—boosted by an Oasis concert—should offset weaker airfares.
- We expect CPI inflation to peak at 4.1% in September, up from 4.0% previously, above the MPC’s 4.0% call.
