Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line:Q2 GDP is shaping up for a solid gain as retail sales roar into the spring, defying rocketing economic uncertainty.
- In one line: Uncertainty driven rebound in consumers' confidence points to continued solid retail spending growth.
- In one line: PMI rebounds as uncertainty fades, and drop in price balances helps the MPC.
- In one line:Borrowing likely overshot the OBR’s projections in April, we still expect tax rises by the end of the year.
- Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
- Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
- Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.
- Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
- …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
- So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
- Falling uncertainty as President Trump dialled back his more ruinous tariffs boosted the PMI in May.
- The PMI signals 0.3% q/q GDP growth once we adjust for the survey’s typical overreaction to uncertainty.
- The MPC will welcome easing price pressures but needs another month of data to confirm the trend.
- Administered, government-set and indexed price hikes drove inflation up to 3.5% in April.
- Erratic factors added only modestly to inflation, so the MPC will have to take the headline seriously.
- Accumulated news—growth, lower tariffs, inflation—leads us to expect only one more rate cut this year.
- Official house price inflation reached a 26-month high in February, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% in January.
- Momentum will dip temporarily as the stamp-duty distortion unwinds…
- ...But strong wage growth and falling interest rates should still deliver house price inflation of 4% in 2025.
- New rules will cut immigration by 98K a year—0.2% of the population—according to government estimates.
- We estimate that the curbs will slow potential growth by 0.1% per year, raising the pressure for tax hikes.
- A greater sectoral mismatch between workers and jobs will likely result too, adding to wage pressures.
- Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
- We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
- We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.
- In one line: Small boost from tariff-front running, which likely continued as President Trump pushed back reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.
- In one line:Fading consumer caution will keep GDP ticking along.
- UK GDP was surprisingly strong again in March; the economy was ticking over fine ahead of the trade war.
- We think the MPC is far too pessimistic in pegging underlying growth at 0.0% in Q1.
- We raise our forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market justifies further gradual rate cuts.
- In one line: Easter distorts the BRC, but look through that and retail sales volumes are still rising strongly.
- In one line: Job and pay growth improve slightly as payroll tax drag eases, but the MPC downplay the REC now.
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, above the MPC’s forecast, 3.4%.
- We estimate that indexed, government-set and utility prices will add 120bp to April inflation.
- We see risks to the MPC’s forecast skewed upwards, as a raft of cost rises could prompt price rises.
