Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI posts a modest gain, largely reflecting pre-holiday seasonality
- In one line: Industrial momentum weakens; outlook remains subdued.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index is uncorrelated with the official data; its January jump should be ignored.
- The US is too big an economy for the 2026 World Cup to have anything more than a trivial impact on GDP.
- We expect a small lift to consumers’ spending in the summer, but even that might be hard to see in the data.
- Brazilian Real — Carry, and USD weakness
- Chilean Peso — Copper rally and policy credibility
- Mexican Peso — Strong start to the year, but…
- EZ inflation dropped below 2% in January, and is set to remain at that level in February.
- The dovish pressure on the ECB will increase into the March meeting, but likely not enough for a cut.
- A downgrade to the ECB’s near-term core inflation forecast is the main dovish risk for policymakers.
- The January PMI hit an 18-month high, consistent with 0.3-to-0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1.
- Jobs continue to fall, according to the PMI, as the payroll-tax hike forces firms to cut back.
- But falling jobs are structural; PMI price balances were broadly steady above inflation-target-consistent levels.
In one line: A last dovish hurrah, probably.
- US - Rates unlikely to track a much lower path with Warsh at the Fed
- EUROZONE - No change from the ECB this week amid mixed data
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in December but activity will pick up in Q1
- CHINA+ - How Beijing is using diplomacy to expose cracks in Western alliances
- EM ASIA - Taiwan Q4 GDP hits a 21st-century high; our call was spot on
- LATAM - Brazil signals March easing; Chile holds but cuts likely ahead
- Truflation has been dragged down by new rents, mortgage interest and temporary food promotions...
- ...But these all will have a small or zero impact on the official measure of inflation in January.
- The manufacturing turnaround implied by the January ISM survey looks too good to be true.
- Brazil’s Q4 industrial weakness confirms a recession in the sector due to tight financial conditions.
- Sentiment has stabilised, but demand remains soft as high rates constrain manufacturing activity.
- A March rate cut will likely support a gradual recovery, but downside risks remain elevated.
- India’s 2026/27 budget is the least restrictive we’ve seen in years, seeing a trivial deficit consolidation…
- …to 4.3% of GDP; an achievable target in our view, given the natural capex ceiling and realistic tax goal.
- The start of a new anchor—debt-to-GDP—will mean faster consolidation from 2027/28 though.
- Soft French inflation data point to the EZ HICP conforming to the consensus today.
- We still see higher domestic inflation offsetting disinflationary currency strength in Switzerland…
- …Swiss headline inflation was likely stable in January, at 0.1%; will the SNB intervene to push down CHF?
- Issuance changes, a drop in the fiscal risk premium and weaker data pushed down yields from November.
- But the gilt-market rally is reversing as political risk rises and the market prices fewer cuts from the MPC.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year yields to rise to a 2026 high of 4.60% and 5.40%, respectively, in Q3.
- The most reliable surveys collectively signal a 75K rise in January payrolls, but we look for a 100K increase...
- ...Supported by milder-than-usual weather in early January and a partial recovery in retail payrolls.
- The Conference Board’s consumer survey, however, indicates the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5%.
- A 100bp rate hike signals alarm over inflation expectations after Colombia’s huge minimum-wage increase.
- Board divisions, fiscal slippage and fuel subsidies complicate BanRep’s efforts to restore policy credibility.
- Strong demand and tight job markets force the Bank to prioritise controlling inflation over near-term growth.
- Taiwan’s Q4 GDP growth surged to a blockbuster 12.7%, above the unjustifiable 8.8% consensus...
- …Exports did the heavy lifting, though even we were taken aback by the rebound in consumption.
- The MAS held policy steady; we see little need for tightening with imported inflation still non-existent.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs for January diverged, pointing to robust high-tech versus weak low-tech.
- Soft data for output prices improved, but this likely reflects a narrow set of prices, like non-ferrous metals.
- Construction-sector sentiment slumped to its lowest since the outbreak of Covid, despite policy support.
- The ECB will hold rates steady this week, amid data to suit both hawkish and dovish policymakers.
- German retail sales rose by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, reversing weakness in Q3.
- The Swiss PMIs point to a rebound in growth in early 2026, matching our forecasts.
- Mining output likely rose sharply in December as Brent and Forties loadings surged…
- ...but falling manufacturing activity and energy supply output will drag on GDP growth.
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q4 of 0.1%, but it could tip to 0.2%.
STARTING Q1 WITH SOFT GROWTH AND SELECTIVE POLICY EASING
- DISINFLATION HELPS, BUT POLITICS DOMINATE THE OUTLOOK
