Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Underlying growth is fine, helped by consumers; we look for GDP to grow by 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Payroll falls are a risk, but we think they exaggerate job losses, and in any case vacancies are stabilising.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, so the MPC will have to pause after it cuts in August.
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.
- In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.
- Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
- A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
- Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios.
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
- We reiterate our Q2 GDP growth call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter after retail sales improved in June.
- Over-50s’ confidence disconnected from spending, possibly as political views drive sentiment more.
- Under-50s are optimistic, consistent with retail volumes growing by 2% year-over-year.
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but watch for chunky revisions in the final release.
- Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
- Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
- ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
- We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
- 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
- Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.
- Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
- Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
- The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
- In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.
- In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades
- We reluctantly brought forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
- Underlying GDP is trending up, retail sales will bounce strongly in June, and payroll falls seem to be easing.
- We continue to expect above-target inflation out to end-2027 after sticky wage growth and inflation data.
