Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
- The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
- We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
- Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
- We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
- We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.
- The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
- The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
- US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.
- We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
- Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
- Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.
- A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
- But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
- We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.
- Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
- The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
- Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.
- The UK’s unsustainable government-debt trajectory leaves gilts vulnerable to selling off.
- The OBR this week detailed risks to its projection that government debt will hit 270% of GDP in the 2070s.
- Gilt yields will likely avoid a sharp sell-off as long as the government sticks to reasonably tight fiscal rules.
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in April, driven by food prices.
- An earlier CPI collection date than our assumption of June 17 would pose downside risk…
- …Clothes and hotel prices likely strengthened later in the month as temperatures rose.
- We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
- Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
- Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.
- In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.
- In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.
- In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.
- In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.
- In one line: June’s downward revisions to the PMI’s sub-indices were likely driven by oil prices, sentiment will continue to improve.
- In one line: Falling saving flows and rising corporate borrowing point to solid economic growth.
- In one line: House prices fall in June but returning buyer demand will push up prices soon.
- In one line: Better balanced growth after revisions bodes well.
HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE IN APRIL...
- ...BUT THE RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
- A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
- Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
- The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.
