Pantheon Publications

25 June 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's flash PMIs reveal areas of resilience amid tariff storm

• Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
• Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
• The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Germany business surveys on the rise, unlike the hard data

• German business surveys are on the rise, but the hard data are not; at least, not yet… 
• ...The cabinet approved the 2025 supplementary budget; parliament must do likewise by September. 
• The rise in public spending and capex will feed through only in Q4 or, more likely, from 2026.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 June 2025 UK Monitor Labour market continues to ease gradually, but the worst is over

• Collapsing payrolls in May look inconsistent with stable or improving survey-based measures of jobs.
• The soft data suggest the worst of the slowdown caused by the payroll-tax hike is behind us.
• Stable economic growth, driven by less trade-related uncertainty, will give a hawkish tint to the job data.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April 2025

• In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May 2025

• In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, May 2025

• In one line:Public finances deteriorate in May, tax-hike speculation to mount over the summer.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, June 2025

• In one line: Consumers’ confidence inches up, but it will be tested over the summer.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

Sales likely to continue to stagnate.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: Economic activity index and retail sales, Mexico, April, 2025

• In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Economic activity index and retail sales, Mexico, April, 2025

• In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, June 2025

• In one line: Rates and guidance unchanged in June, but a dovish tilt to the minutes. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, May 2025

• In one line:Retail sales tank in May but will rebound.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, June 2025

• In one line: Activity rises and price pressures fall, but geopolitical stress a rising worry.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, EZ, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, June 2025

In one line: Are we too downbeat on Germany?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, June 2025

In one line: Are we too downbeat on Germany?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, June 2025

In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, June 2025

In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 June 2025 US Monitor The scope for Fed easing is much bigger than S&P PMI data suggests

• S&P reports brisk employment growth in June, but itsindex has been a very poor guide to payrolls since 2023.
• The output price index signals an implausibly large pick- up in core goods CPI inflation ahead.
• The unwinding of a one-time uplift to Social Security payments probably dragged on income growth in May.

Samuel TombsUS