Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: As we expected, but where was the Airbus-driven upward revision?
Philippine inflation has finally bottomed out
- In one line: Strong growth and stubborn price pressures will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year.
- In one line: The PMI inches up but still remains overly downbeat.
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressures should keep the MPC cautious, but falling employment is a building risk.
- In one line: Private car registrations should continue to rise as displacement demand drives sales.
- Payrolls lack momentum, but the first estimate for August jobs typically is revised upwards.
- Labor market slack is building, but less quickly than a year ago, when the FOMC eased by 50bp.
- The upcoming easing cycle, however, will be prolonged; we still look for 150bp cut by mid-2026.
- Mexico’s economy is showing modest resilience, supported by manufacturing and services.
- Consumption is underpinned by wages and remittances, but capex is weakening amid trade tensions.
- Brazil’s trade surplus is holding up, but industry is deteriorating due to US tariffs and tight policy.
- We’ve created our own GDP deflator for India; it suggests that growth collapsed in Q2, to just 5.8%…
- …The fiscal cost of ‘GST 2.0’ is small, so expect the same for its macro impact amid fiscal consolidation.
- Taiwanese inflation ticked up to 1.6% in August , from 1.5%, as typhoon Podul drove up food prices.
- A US executive order finally formalises its trade deal with Japan, ending uncertainty for Japan’s economy.
- Real wages have risen for the first time since December, boosting October rate-hike bets.
- The BoJ is likely to look past weaker ‘same-sample’ data, with trade worries fading.
- EZ GDP rose in Q2 only because of an accumulation of inventories...
- ...Inventories are now set to crash, but the drag from net trade will be buffered by a fall in imports.
- We now look for continued, albeit still-weak, Eurozone GDP growth in the second half of the year.
- Another hawkish week leaves us happy forecasting growth at potential and sticky inflation.
- We still think job falls will ease in the coming months, but risks are building, as shown by the DMP.
- We expect no more rate cuts from the MPC, but jobs will have to turn around soon to keep that on track.
SOLID GROWTH AND STICKY INFLATION...
- …THE MPC WILL HOLD BANK RATE FOR THE REST OF 2025
In one line: Better; inflation pressures remain strong despite subdued activity.
- In one line: SNB cut this month still on, just.
In one line: SNB cut this month still on, just.
- In one line: Hit by a descent into outright food deflation.
- ADP reports average monthly private payroll gains of 79K in Q3, up from 22K in Q2...
- ...But the link with the official data is loose and unstable; more reliable indicators remain weak.
- ISM and S&P services surveys point to a renewed rise in services inflation, challenging our base case.
- Growth is steady in Chile, led by resilient services, a mining rebound and capex; net trade is a drag.
- Inflation is easing gradually, but sticky services prices and wage pass-through delay convergence to target.
- The fiscal deficit has widened, and labour market slack and political uncertainty cloud the outlook.
- BNM left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as it remains confident despite US tariffs...
- ...The Bank has seen strong orders for electronics and expects domestic demand to stay robust.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts for Thailand to just -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
