Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Data in the past month have been hawkish: rising GDP, a recovering job market and strong inflation.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Strong growth and sticky inflation mean we expect the MPC to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2025.
- In one line:The Chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence to stay rangebound for the rest of the year.
- In one line: Growth will match the MPC’s expectations in Q3.
- In one line: House prices are recovering quickly from the stamp duty hike and will continue to rise in H2.
- In one line: Another hawkish blow to the MPC means no more cuts this year.
- In one line: RICS falters in July but it will gradually rise in H2.
- In one line:Strong GDP growth in H1 illustrates a high neutral rate.
- Above-consensus payrolls and GDP growth show the job market is recovering and growth is holding firm.
- The MPC faces rebounding growth, a stabilising job market and inflation miles above target.
- We expect CPI inflation for July to come in fractionally below the MPC’s forecast at 3.7%.
- In one line: The REC improves in July but signals the jobs market remains weak.
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressure despite falling employment suggests a cautious MPC.
- In one line: We’re comfortable assuming the MPC on hold for the rest of this year after hawkish guidance changes and vote.
- In one line: Official retail sales will rise at a healthy clip in July.
- In one line: A stabilising labour market and elevated pay growth constrain the MPC.
- A tight vote split and cautious guidance make the MPC’s August cut to Bank Rate hawkish.
- Inflation averaging 3.7% for the rest of the year means August’s rate cut will be the last in 2025.
- The data-flow will firm up this week, to show GDP growth rebounding and payrolls barely falling.
HOUSE PRICES REBOUND IN MAY...
- ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN H2
- The MPC cut by 25bp but was much more hawkish, with a tighter-than-expected 5-to-4 vote in favour.
- The MPC added more cautious guidance, lifted its inflation forecasts and said upside risks had risen.
- So, we maintain our forecast for no more rate cuts this year, which the market moved closer to pricing.
- In one line: Car registrations will bounce back as borrowing costs fall and the market normalises after duty hikes.
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but inflation is proving persistent.
- In one line: The PMI should gradually improve as borrowing costs fall and the Government spends big.
