Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- The effective tariff rate has fallen sharply recently and pass-through to consumers likely is now complete.
- The lift to core PCE inflation from tariffs probably will fall to zero by early 2027, from about 0.6pp in April…
- …But the fresh shock from the war with Iran means core inflation will remain elevated this year.
- The jump in energy prices likely started to lift some core goods prices, but the peak will come in Q3.
- CPI primary rent and OER likely rose only modestly, as the slowdown in new rents feeds through.
- Residual seasonality pollutes the services price data; May data have been consistently soft since 2022.
Supply chain disruptions providing a temporary boost to activity.
- In one line: Supply chain disruptions providing a temporary boost to activity.
Clearer signs of precautionary stockpilling.
Weak sales likely to prompt a further drop in starts.
Supply chain disruptions adding to price pressures.
On hold for now, but the likelihood of easing further ahead in underrated.
No end in sight for the housing slump.
Supply-chain risks prompting a rush of activity and greater price pressures.
Strength in sales likely to unwind as tax refunds taper off.
- Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
- But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
- We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.
- In one line: Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.
- Half of the rise in the April core PPI was due to a jump in gross margins; they won’t stay so high for long.
- A further third of the gain was driven by a step jump in transportation prices; unlikely to be repeated..
- Data center investment still is providing only a small lift to overall construction activity and employment.
Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.
- The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
- We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
- Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.
The recent resilience in consumers’ spending probably is on borrowed time.
Strong productivity growth is restraining unit labor costs.
Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.
