Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, March

Equipment investment set to slump after a solid Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, March

Sales likely to flatline at best from here.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, March

Sales likely to drop back very soon.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

23 April 2025 US Monitor The president has little to gain and much to lose by firing Chair Powell

Fear of a severe economic and market hit will dissuade President Trump from firing Chair Powell...
...But the president’s tariffs show he is willing to throw caution to the wind on economic policy.
The S&P Global PMI likely will indicate higher goods inflation, but services inflation remaining in check.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

22 April 2025 US Monitor The DOGE bark is proving far worse than its bite

The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
…So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims / Housing Starts

No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, April

Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, March

Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, March

Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

21 April 2025 US Monitor Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker

Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, April

A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

17 April 2025 US Monitor Consumption probably rose by 1% in Q1, but now is likely to stagnate

The March retail sales report suggests consumers’ spending rose by 1% in Q1.
But the hit from tariffs points to stagnant consumption, more or less, in Q2 and Q3.
The 0.3% increase in March manufacturing output looks like the calm before the tariff storm.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

April 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…

…THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

16 April 2025 US Monitor March is likely to prove a high-water mark for manufacturing

Manufacturing output likely jumped by 0.5% in March, returning to its highest level since late 2022…
…Don’t be deceived; a manufacturing recession is likely in the coming months on the back of tariffs.
Supply chains look set for disruption, and consumer, industrial and export demand will all soften.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

15 April 2025 US Monitor Pre-tariff purchases probably lifted retail sales again in March

Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US