Pantheon Publications
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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
- The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
- ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
- The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.
Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
- Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
- …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
- Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.
In one line: Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Cracks starting to show in the labor market.
Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.
Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.
Tariff uncertainty comes for the housing market.
- We look for a 0.1% uptick in real consumers’ spending in April, and a 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator.
- Q1 GDP growth probably still is being understated, but the economy was losing momentum nonetheless.
- The court ruling against the Trump tariffs looks unlikely to derail the administration’s trade agenda.
- The regional Fed surveys suggest services sector growth in slowing rather than collapsing...
- ...But employment growth in many services industries probably will be much weaker in Q3.
- Limited services inflation and wage growth will allow the Fed to respond with easier policy, eventually.
Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.
Equipment investment is set to fall sharply.
Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
- The marked weakness in airline passenger numbers partly reflects a dive in inbound tourism.
- Most other near-real time indicators of consumers’ spending remain relatively resilient.
- Existing home sales probably remained depressed in April; a meaningful recovery still is some way off.
Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.
