Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 9

 Stable but subdued.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, July 2025

 Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

12 August 2025 US Monitor A jump in auto sales probably will obscure underlying retail weakness

• We look for a 1% gain in headline retail sales in July, mostly due to a rebound in auto sales…
• …But underlying sales likely were relatively weak again, with control sales volumes broadly stagnating.
• We think consumers' spending will grow by ½-to-1% in Q3, in keeping with the subdued pace in H1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q2 2025

Flattered by GDP distortions in Q2, but the underlying trend still is solid.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, July 2025

Probably a false alarm on services inflation.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, July 2025

A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, July, 2025

• In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Employment, US, July, 2025

• In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, June 2025

Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, June

Going nowhere fast.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q2 2025

• In one line: Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, June

Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US S&P Global PMI / New Home Sales

Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 19

Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, June

Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

25 July 2025 US Monitor. Trade deal progress implies little change in average tariff rates

• Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge. 
• But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports. 
• The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

24 July 2025 US Monitor The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain

• We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
• …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
• Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

23 July 2025 US Monitor Further fall in housing inflation will give the Fed some breathing room

• Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
• …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
• It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, June

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US