Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, October 2025

Shutdown hit limited for now, but strong headwinds remain.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, September 2025

An unreliable guide to growth in services spending.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2025

Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, September, 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, September 2025

Far from definitive.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, September 2025

Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, August 2025

Lower mortgage rates start to lend a hand.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, August 2025

High prices are holding back sales.

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators / Weekly Jobless Claims

Economy's momentum looks strong in Q3 but unlikely to last.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacutring Survey, US, August 2025

• In one line: Jump in new orders obscures underlying weakness

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, August 2025

Jump in new orders obscured underlying weakness.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, July 2025

Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, July 2025

Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, July 2025

Bigger falls in sales likely lie ahead.

PM Datanote: US Chair Powell Jackson Hole Speech, August 2025

A September easing looks nailed on, with more likely to follow.

26 August 2025 US Monitor July orders likely to highlight the weakness of fixed investment

• A weak month at Boeing likely hit headline orders, but orders ex-transportation probably were soft too.
• Tariff-related uncertainty still seems to be weighing heavily on companies’ capex plans.
• A big inventory overhang points to a further decline in new residential construction ahead.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI / Existing Home Sales

The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 16, 2025

Labor market slack is gradually building.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, July 2025

July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.

22 August 2025 US Monitor A big re-acceleration in economic growth still looks unlikely

• The S&P Global PMI points to underlying growth returning to the rapid pace seen in 2024. 
• That seems unlikely to us, given the many headwinds to growth, mostly due to tariffs.
• We doubt the jump in services inflation suggested by the PMI will materialize either.