Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, April 2026

No end in sight for the housing slump.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production / Empire State Survey

Supply-chain risks prompting a rush of activity and greater price pressures.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, April 2026

Strength in sales likely to unwind as tax refunds taper off.

15 May 2026 US Monitor The recent strength in retail sales is on borrowed time

• Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
• But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
• We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.

Global Datanote: CPI, US, April 2026

• In one line: Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.

14 May 2026 US Monitor April PPI jump was narrow and will partially reverse soon

• Half of the rise in the April core PPI was due to a jump in gross margins; they won’t stay so high for long.
• A further third of the gain was driven by a step jump in transportation prices; unlikely to be repeated..
• Data center investment still is providing only a small lift to overall construction activity and employment.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Survey, April 2026

Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.

12 May 2026 US Monitor Retail sales likely held their ground in April, but look set to falter later in Q2

• The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
• We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
• Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Consumer Survey, May 2026

The recent resilience in consumers’ spending probably is on borrowed time.

PM Datanote: US Productivity & Unit Labor Costs / Weekly Jobless Claims

Strong productivity growth is restraining unit labor costs.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, April 2026

Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, February/March 2026

Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.

5 May 2026 US Monitor The AI boom won't prop up the economy all by itself

• Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports. 
• We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp. 
• Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support. 

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, April 2026

In one line: Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, April 2026

Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q1

Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q1 2026

In one line: Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, March 2026

Q1 GDP now on track for sub-2% growth.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, April 2026

Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, April 2026

Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.