Pantheon Publications

29 October 2025 US Monitor Consumers report poor job availability and expect worse ahead

• Conference Board job availability little changed in October, signalling a mere 50K rise in private jobs.
• New weekly ADP data are likely to mislead to an even greater extent than the long-running monthly series.
• A 25bp easing in the funds rate is almost certain today; Powell to be non-committal amid lack of data.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, October 2025

Services inflation likely to remain in check.

PM Datanote: US CPI, September 2025

Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.

PM Datanote: CPI, US, September 2025

Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, September 2025

Lower mortgage rates boost sales, but major headwinds remain.

24 October 2025 US Monitor Are payrolls a more reliable cyclical guide than GDP

• Payroll trends have consistently been a good guide to the economy’s momentum in the past. 
• Job growth often responds far more quickly at major turning points than contemperaneous GDP. 
• The current near-stagnation in job gains is alarming, despite the relatively healthy economic activity data.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, September 2025

Rock-bottom response rate casts doubt over reliability.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, October 2025

Shutdown hit limited for now, but strong headwinds remain.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, September 2025

An unreliable guide to growth in services spending.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2025

Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, September, 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, September 2025

Far from definitive.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, September 2025

Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, August 2025

Lower mortgage rates start to lend a hand.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, August 2025

High prices are holding back sales.

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators / Weekly Jobless Claims

Economy's momentum looks strong in Q3 but unlikely to last.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacutring Survey, US, August 2025

• In one line: Jump in new orders obscures underlying weakness

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, August 2025

Jump in new orders obscured underlying weakness.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, July 2025

Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, July 2025

Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.