Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
- In one line: Activity holds up, but signs of cooling are emerging.
In one line: Still supportive of another ECB hike.
- In one line: Focus on services strength rather than a headline rate dragged down by surprising food and goods inflation slowing.
- In one line: Base effects flatter April house prices, activity will grind down in the coming months.
Singapore's NODX growth reaches a new high
- Brazil — Security takes centre stage
- Mexico — Sovereignty push raises political risks
- Colombia — Run-off puts security centre stage
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic export growth reached an astonishing new high, at 38.4% in May…
- …And Q2 should be stronger than we had previously expected, thanks to oil exports and electronics.
- We’ve raised our 2026 current account forecast for India to -1.5% of GDP, from -3.0%, with oil receding.
- Based on current oil prices, and our forecast for the June HICP, the ECB will hold fire in July…
- …but we still think the bank will tighten by 50bp in the end, so we now see a final hike in September.
- Inflation is now on track to undershoot the ECB’s forecast this year, but not in 2027.
- Focus on solid services inflation rather than weaker- than-expected headline inflation.
- The headline inflation miss is smaller than it looks and producer prices point to goods weakness reversing.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing only gradually and remains consistent with above target inflation.
- In one line: Q2 starts weak due to tight financial conditions.
In one line: Retail sales weakened further; FAI data plagued by falsification issues again; Industrial output supported by exports
- US - Time for the real Kevin Warsh to stand up
- EUROZONE - White smoke in the US-Iran talks kicks July hike into long grass
- UK - MPC preview: another “active” hold, biased towards a hike
- CHINA+ - Chinese exports enjoy knock-on effects from AI boom
- EM ASIA - US-Iran deal; short-term neutral for Indian CPI, but good news for WPI
- LATAM - Inflation complicates Brazil’s outlook; Peru’s rate pause looks set to last
- We think the control measure retail sales rose by just 0.2% in May, the smallest gain since December.
- The flow of tax refunds to households slowed to a trickle last month, but gas prices rose further.
- Near-real time data are mixed; slower growth, rather than an immediate correction, is most likely.
- Brazil’s retail sales fell sharply in April, with weakness concentrated in credit-sensitive categories.
- Consumer confidence and sectoral data suggest household spending is gradually losing momentum.
- Softer activity supports further easing, but inflation limits the scope for larger cuts.
- China’s May retail sales dropped 0.6%, the worst since December 2022, reflecting trade-in subsidy payback.
- Fixed-asset investment still appears weak, but the data are plagued by another round of falsification issues.
- Manufacturing output is being propped up by exports; but further targeted support for demand is likely in July.
- Eurozone labour costs were rising by just over 3% year-over-year at the start of 2026…
- …but more timely data suggest the trend in wage growth is now easing temporarily, to just over 2%.
- A jump in ZEW investor sentiment in June is the first evidence of US-Iran peace hopes hitting the data.
- We extend our analysis of gilt spreads over peers to Treasuries and models of daily changes in yields.
- Our models suggest that UK political risk yields are adding 9-to-19bp to 10y gilt-bund spreads.
- The boost to yields from replacing Sir Keir Starmer would offset the impact of a roughly 20% oil price fall.
- In one line: Demand from the Middle East continues to normalise; oil boost to imports will eventually correct.
- In one line: June should mark the peak before a precipitous collapse in H2.
