Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
- President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
- The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
- We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.
Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.
A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.
Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.
In one line: Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand
GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.
IMay slump brings sales back to reality.
Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.
Sales likely to continue to stagnate.
Underlying sales volumes holding up...for now.
More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
- The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
- ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
- The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.
Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
- Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
- …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
- Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.
In one line: Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Cracks starting to show in the labor market.
