Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q2 2025

Flattered by GDP distortions in Q2, but the underlying trend still is solid.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, July 2025

Probably a false alarm on services inflation.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, July 2025

A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, July, 2025

• In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline. 

Global Datanote: Employment, US, July, 2025

• In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, June 2025

Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, June

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q2 2025

• In one line: Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, June

Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global PMI / New Home Sales

Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 19

Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, June

Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.

25 July 2025 US Monitor. Trade deal progress implies little change in average tariff rates

• Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge. 
• But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports. 
• The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts. 

24 July 2025 US Monitor The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain

• We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
• …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
• Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports. 

23 July 2025 US Monitor Further fall in housing inflation will give the Fed some breathing room

• Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
• …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
• It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, June

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 12

Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, June

Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, June 18 Meeting

Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.