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The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.
Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4
Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.
The outlook for homebuilders remains tough.
Weak underlying sales probably a sign of what's to come.
Probably overstating the labor market’s health.
Trade's contribution to Q4 GDP growth probably significant but not enormous.
Spending slowdown and further labor market weakness are likely.
THE ECONOMY IS UNLIKELY TO ACCELERATE IN H1...
Consumption strong through November, but on shaky foundations.
Overstating the gloom, but a downbeat message nonetheless.
Signs of stabilization, but big headwinds remain.
Still an unreliable guide to services spending.
independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence