Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: The ECB is no longer 'in a good place.'
In one line: The ECB is no longer 'in a good place.'
Japan's exports slow due to holiday calendar effects
Chip and electrical machinery shipments rise
- The median FOMC member still expects to ease policy by 25bp this year, unchanged from December.
- The new, higher forecasts for core PCE inflation are plausible, but those for stable unemployment are not.
- PPI data show retailers have passed on all the tariff costs to consumers; margins back on track.
- Brazil — Election race tightens as fiscal risks mount
- Mexico — Fiscal push meets market volatility
- Colombia — Fragmentation sharpens electoral maths
- Oil at $150 should pose no urgent CPI risk to India; fiscally, it’s better placed to manage this shock…
- …Main threat would be higher imported inflation from late-2026, as the CA deficit would blow up.
- Indonesia could see an 11% rise in subsidised fuel prices this year—more than in 2022—with $150 oil.
- China faces the likely prospect of a modest bump in consumer inflation from the oil-price surge...
- ...Soft pork prices are likely to partly offset higher energy costs; but producer inflation could swing dramatically.
- Japan would be more vulnerable to an oil price at $150 per barrel, forcing an early BoJ rate hike.
- EZ inflation is headed for just under 3% by May; the ECB will hike in response, likely in June and July.
- The ECB will justify higher rates by the need to move interest rates to the higher end of neutral.
- History warns against hiking into oil-price shocks, but the ECB will believe it can pull it off, again.
- We expect the data flow to soften as the implications of the war in Iran feed into surveys.
- But the PMI held up for two months after Russia’s invasion in 2022; the housing market will react faster.
- The MPC’s focus on spare capacity means the job data will be crucial for forecasting the path for rates.
Electronic exports in Singapore continue to boom
- US - Consumers look less resilient going into the energy price squeeze
- EUROZONE - Three scenarios for the ECB as a new energy shock hits
- UK - MPC preview: Bank Rate on hold and more cautious guidance
- CHINA+ - China’s low inflation cushions against energy-price shock
- EM ASIA - EA activity heap maps; major exporters still outperforming
- LATAM - Benign inflation in Brazil, but oil shock clouds COPOM outlook
- We think headline CPI inflation would soar to 6% if oil prices hit $150, with core PCE inflation rising to 31/2%.
- The jump implies a hit to GDP of just over 1pp, probably lifting the unemployment rate to about 5%.
- We think the Fed would wait until next spring to deliver the 75bp easing we expect this year in our base case.
- Peru’s inflation is rising on supply shocks; anchored expectations allow BCRP to maintain a cautious tone.
- Activity remains resilient and near potential, though energy disruption and external risks cloud the outlook.
- Policy will likely stay on hold, as uncertainty limits the scope for action, at least over the next six months.
- Bank Indonesia held rates yesterday, as expected, and no longer pledged to find room for more cuts.
- We lower our estimate for India’s current account deficit this year to -3.0% of GDP, due to the oil crisis.
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for January- to-February point to 49.7% growth in electronics.
- Surging energy prices will hit disposable income growth and consumers’ spending this year…
- …But household balance sheets are strong; consumers will keep spending.
- We’re lowering our growth forecasts for this year by 0.3pp, and by 0.1pp next year as spending slows.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
Little to cheer for homebuilders.
Underlying manufacturing output still looks anemic.
- In one line: Big short-term downside risks to the deficit due to the Iran war.
