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The implied jump in services inflation makes little sense.
October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.
Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak
Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.
EXPECT AN EXTENDED FED EASING CYCLE...
Improving slightly, but investment still soft outside of tech.
Weak jobs market continues to depress consumers.
Boost from lower rates likely has only a bit further to run.
December hangs in the balance, but substantial easing probably still lies ahead.
Dip in mortgage rates providing only a small tailwind.
Pointing to a sharp slowdown in wage growth.
Reliability questionable, but grim reading nonetheless.
Likely sending a false alarm on services inflation.
Tariff-led jump goods inflation likely to be temporary.
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