Pantheon Publications

29 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's involution and the squeeze on industrial profits

• Involution (内卷), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
• Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
• Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.

22 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan faces political shift; Korea navigates export risk and trade talks

• Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
• July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
• A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.

18 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's exports slide in June, raising risk of technical recession

• Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
• Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical  recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
• The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.

Global Datanote: Exports, China, June 2025

In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, June

In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, July

In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, June

In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in June on currency and bond revaluation gains.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, May

In one line : Japanese wage growth is not as weak as it looks, the wage slump was mostly about bonuses.

China+ Datanote: Caixin Services PMI, China, June

In one line: China’s services momentum cools amid property drag and post-holiday blues; Caixin composite PMI signals softer Q2 GDP.

Global Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens

Global Datanote: 20 Day Exports, Korea, June

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry

11 July 2025 China+ Monitor The BoK paused easing cycle in July due to financial stability worries

• The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged in July, citing concerns over trade policy and Seoul’s housing market.
• The MPB was torn, focusing its decision on trade- induced growth worries versus financial stability risk.
• We expect the Bank to resume rate-cutting once apartment prices show signs of easing in Seoul.

4 July 2025 China+ Monitor Hong Kong dollar peg here to stay, despite talk of its demise

• The HKMA intervened again on Wednesday to defend the currency peg, which has been in place since 1983.
• The LERS is a double-edged sword: Hong Kong loses monetary policy freedom but gains stability.
• Any talk of re-pegging the HKD is premature; China and HKSAR are not yet an Optimal Currency Area.

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens

China+ Datanote: Flash Services PMI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's services business activity grow faster in June, but slowing input cost increase bode ill for wage growth

China+ Datanote: Preliminary Current Account, China, Q1

In one line: China’s current account balance holds up in Q1, but deterioration likely in Q2.

China+ Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q1

In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.

China+ Datanote: 20 Day Exports, Korea, June

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode

24 June 2025 China+ Monitor Temporary export surge belies US-Korea trade frictions

• Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
• Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
• The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.