Pantheon Publications

8 September 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's car-tariff deal sealed; wage growth paves way for October hike

• A US executive order finally formalises its trade deal with Japan, ending uncertainty for Japan’s economy.
• Real wages have risen for the first time since December, boosting October rate-hike bets.
• The BoJ is likely to look past weaker ‘same-sample’ data, with trade worries fading.

August 2025 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S WEAK DEMAND CONTRASTS WITH BUOYANT STOCKS
• - BOJ WAITING FOR DUST TO SETTLE BEFORE HIKING RATES
• - ROCKY EXPORT OUTLOOK KEY TO KOREAN GROWTH

22 August 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's exports show tariff strain; declines led by cars and steel

• Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
• Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
• Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.

Global Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, July

In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser 

Global Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, July

In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025

Global Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, July

In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty 

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, July

In one line: China’s FX reserves dip on stronger dollar and bond loses in July.

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, July

In one line: China’s monthly export momentum fades in July; pharma shipments surged while rare-earth exports rebound.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, June

In one line : Japan’s nominal wage growth remains sturdy amid trade headwinds, but real wages stay deeply negative.

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, July

In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser 

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: NBS non-manufacturing PMI dragged down by construction activity in July.

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead

China+ Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, June

In one line: China’s industrial profits slid further in June, weighed down by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, July

In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, July

In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty 

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, June

In one line: Japan’s exports slip unexpectedly in June, raising risk of a technical recession

12 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's low-inflation environment being addressed by policymakers

• China’s consumer prices are teetering on the brink of deflation, with July’s rate falling back to 0.0%.
• Producer deflation has deepened further. Any progress on anti-involution will take time to appear.
• Trade uncertainty will weigh on factory-gate prices regardless; all eyes are on the 15th five-year plan.

8 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves dip on USD strength and bond losses in July

• China’s FX reserves fell less than the market expected, but still staged the first drop since December.
• The currency-valuation effect was the main downward driver, and the bond-valuation effect to a lesser extent.
• The evolution of China’s FX reserves in H2 hinges critically on the outlook for USD and the Fed.

July 2025 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S PRICE WARS WILL PROMPT POLICY RESPONSE
• - BOJ STRIKES CAUTIOUS TONE ON GROWTH OUTLOOK
• - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY