Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, July

In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025

Global Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, July

In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty 

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, July

In one line: China’s FX reserves dip on stronger dollar and bond loses in July.

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, July

In one line: China’s monthly export momentum fades in July; pharma shipments surged while rare-earth exports rebound.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, June

In one line : Japan’s nominal wage growth remains sturdy amid trade headwinds, but real wages stay deeply negative.

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, July

In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser 

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: NBS non-manufacturing PMI dragged down by construction activity in July.

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead

China+ Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, June

In one line: China’s industrial profits slid further in June, weighed down by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, July

In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, July

In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty 

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, June

In one line: Japan’s exports slip unexpectedly in June, raising risk of a technical recession

12 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's low-inflation environment being addressed by policymakers

• China’s consumer prices are teetering on the brink of deflation, with July’s rate falling back to 0.0%.
• Producer deflation has deepened further. Any progress on anti-involution will take time to appear.
• Trade uncertainty will weigh on factory-gate prices regardless; all eyes are on the 15th five-year plan.

8 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves dip on USD strength and bond losses in July

• China’s FX reserves fell less than the market expected, but still staged the first drop since December.
• The currency-valuation effect was the main downward driver, and the bond-valuation effect to a lesser extent.
• The evolution of China’s FX reserves in H2 hinges critically on the outlook for USD and the Fed.

July 2025 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S PRICE WARS WILL PROMPT POLICY RESPONSE
• - BOJ STRIKES CAUTIOUS TONE ON GROWTH OUTLOOK
• - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY

29 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's involution and the squeeze on industrial profits

• Involution (内卷), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
• Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
• Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.

22 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan faces political shift; Korea navigates export risk and trade talks

• Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
• July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
• A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.

18 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's exports slide in June, raising risk of technical recession

• Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
• Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical  recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
• The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.

Global Datanote: Exports, China, June 2025

In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow