Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- China’s growth will slow as it matures, with speed giving way to stability and structural adjustment.
- Property remains a drag, with sustained producer and consumer reflation unlikely until the market troughs.
- The PBoC is promoting a stronger RMB, while the temporary US trade truce masks a power rivalry.
- China’s consumer inflation fell sharply due to holiday effects, but monthly momentum has strengthened.
- Producer deflation eased unevenly, driven mostly by non-ferrous metals and ‘experience’-related industries.
- The reflation process still has a long way to go and is likely to be choppy, especially for the PPI.
- China has issued key commentary on its financial future, with RMB reserve-currency status in focus.
- Its ambition goes beyond reserve currency, though, to becoming a major financial power too.
- Structural constraints and other deficiencies limit RMB reserve status, despite its progress in global usage.
In one line: China industrial profits 2025: first positive turn in four years, but the path forward remains challenging
In one line: BoJ stands pats in January, but inflation momentum keeps tightening chances intact.
In one line: Japan’s PMIs jump in January, pointing to firmer labour demand, especially in manufacturing.
In one line: Japan CPI slump driven by energy and fresh food; underlying inflation remains sticky
In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports rebound buoyed by base effects; monthly momentum actually slowed in January.
- US allies’ visits to China signal geopolitical hedging, but don’t expect genuine economic integration.
- Beijing appears to be organising these visits to isolate Washington, judging by who initiated the invitations.
- Middle powers are hedging against US unpredictability, but economic fragmentation will lead to higher inflation.
- - CHINA SEES LESS URGENCY TO STABILISE PROPERTY MARKET
- - BOJ WON'T HURRY RATE HIKES, DESPITE SNAP ELECTION
- - BOK LIKELY HOPES TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE RATE CUT
In one line: China’s LPR on hold in January; targeted structural rate cuts unclog credit supply and hopefully induce more loan demand.
In one line: China inflation was firmer in December, but sustained reflation remains challenging
In one line: Bank of Korea drops its easing bias as currency stability takes priority
In one line: Diversification keeps China exports float in 2025; December export upticks largely support by ASEAN & BRICS demand
In one line: China’s PPI sees firmer monthly momentum, but sustained reflation remains challenging
- The Bank of Korea cited excessive KRW volatility as its reason for holding last week, while growth is improving.
- Rising upside risks to growth and inflation, plus FX volatility, are driving a return to a neutral policy stance.
- We still expect a final rate cut in H2, due to uncertainty over global trade policy and the AI cycle.
- China’s successful diversification kept its exports afloat in 2025, with the amount exported reaching USD3.77T.
- The record trade surplus masks exceptionally weak imports, which reflect feeble domestic demand.
- China’s export strategy will face rising challenges in 2026 as non-US trade protectionism escalates.
- China’s PPI improved on the back of a better supply-demand balance and rising non-ferrous metal prices.
- December’s CPI pick-up was due to transient factors such as food, offset by falling energy prices.
- Sustained reflation momentum will be difficult to maintain as economic fundamentals remain weak.
In one line: China’s FX reserves rise on currency valuation gains as dollar weakens in December
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMIs edges back into expansion, but sustainability remains in question
