Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
In one line: China’s PPI deflation eases further in January, but improvements were patchy.
In one line: China’s FX reserves jumped in January on factors beyond valuation effects.
In one line: China’s FX reserves rose further in February amid RMB strength, partly driven by exporters repatriating overseas USD proceeds.
- China’s NPC meeting commences today; we expect a lower growth target and a focus on tech self-reliance…
- …US-China trade representatives will meet in Paris next weekend, ahead of April’s Xi-Trump Beijing summit.
- The conflict in Iran likely adds 0.1pp to East Asian inflation over a few months, due to logistics issues.
In one line: Korea’s export jump exaggerated by LNY timing; semiconductors still underpin growth.
In one line: Property and construction weakness drags China’s non-manufacturing PMI below 50
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMI slips, as a larger-than-usual post-December festive and pre-LNY demand pullback exposes weak fundamentals.
In one line: Korea exports surge in full-month February on global AI investment boom
- The Bank of Korea stood pat in February, and introduced longer-term forward guidance on rate direction.
- Governor Rhee cited persistent financial stability risk and a stronger growth outlook as reasons to hold.
- The newly introduced Fed-style dot-plot suggests no change in policy rate for at least six months.
- - CHINA'S POLICYMAKERS FOCUS ON LONGER-TERM GOALS
- - PM TAKAICHI LIKELY MORE PRAGMATIC THAN FEARED
- - BOK RELIEF AS KRW PRESSURE EASES, FOR NOW
- China’s growth will slow as it matures, with speed giving way to stability and structural adjustment.
- Property remains a drag, with sustained producer and consumer reflation unlikely until the market troughs.
- The PBoC is promoting a stronger RMB, while the temporary US trade truce masks a power rivalry.
- China’s consumer inflation fell sharply due to holiday effects, but monthly momentum has strengthened.
- Producer deflation eased unevenly, driven mostly by non-ferrous metals and ‘experience’-related industries.
- The reflation process still has a long way to go and is likely to be choppy, especially for the PPI.
- China has issued key commentary on its financial future, with RMB reserve-currency status in focus.
- Its ambition goes beyond reserve currency, though, to becoming a major financial power too.
- Structural constraints and other deficiencies limit RMB reserve status, despite its progress in global usage.
In one line: China industrial profits 2025: first positive turn in four years, but the path forward remains challenging
In one line: BoJ stands pats in January, but inflation momentum keeps tightening chances intact.
In one line: Japan’s PMIs jump in January, pointing to firmer labour demand, especially in manufacturing.
In one line: Japan CPI slump driven by energy and fresh food; underlying inflation remains sticky
In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports rebound buoyed by base effects; monthly momentum actually slowed in January.
- US allies’ visits to China signal geopolitical hedging, but don’t expect genuine economic integration.
- Beijing appears to be organising these visits to isolate Washington, judging by who initiated the invitations.
- Middle powers are hedging against US unpredictability, but economic fragmentation will lead to higher inflation.
- - CHINA SEES LESS URGENCY TO STABILISE PROPERTY MARKET
- - BOJ WON'T HURRY RATE HIKES, DESPITE SNAP ELECTION
- - BOK LIKELY HOPES TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE RATE CUT
