Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: IP, India, January 2026

• In one line: An understandable, and likely temporary, breather to start 2026.

EM Asia Datanote: IP, India, January 2026

• In one line: An understandable, and likely temporary, breather to start 2026.

3 March 2026 US Monitor Soft February jobs to imply Fed will ease again midyear, despite Iran war

• February payrolls likely rose by only about 25K, below the trend, due to strikes.
• The weather was favorable in both January and February payroll survey weeks, so likely a neutral factor.
• The unemployment rate will repeat its past tendency of rebounding in February after dipping in January.

3 March 2026 LatAm Monitor Peru's macroeconomic strength faces electoral test in Q2

• Solid growth and contained inflation underpin Peru’s resilience despite intensifying political turbulence…
• …Strong buffers anchor confidence as upcoming elections delay fiscal and capex decisions.
• The oil-price surge reshuffles the currency outlook, but for now deeper regional fallout appears limited.

3 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Boost to Indonesian exports from oil spike still small compared to 2022

• Indonesian exports fell well short of expectations in January, with the commodities lift still subdued…
• …But this should change in H2, with prices set to lift growth above 10%, helping to rebuild the surplus.
• The breach of BI’s CPI target range in February is skin-deep, but we’ve upped our 2026 call to 2.7%.

3 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor War in Iran to add 0.2pp to EZ inflation between now and June?

• War in Iran will add 0.1-to-0.2pp to EZ inflation between now and June, at current oil and gas prices. 
• Inflation in liquid fuels will jump immediately, but gas and electricity prices will rise more slowly. 
• The ECB will view rising energy prices due to geopolitics as a negative supply shock. 

3 March 2026 UK Monitor Energy prices could stop the MPC cutting more than once this year

• Energy-price rises, if sustained, would add 0.2-to-0.3pp to UK inflation in July, and 0.2pp at year-end.
• The market’s 50:50 probability of a March cut looks fair in these early hours after events in the Middle East.
• But two MPC rate cuts this year are unlikely if energy prices drive inflation to re-accelerate in H2 2026.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, February 2026

• In one line: Underlying price pressures rising, but feel free to ignore the breach of BI’s range.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, January 2026

• In one line: No post-Ukraine-war like burst, yet, to expect from export growth.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 March 2026

No post-Ukraine-war like burst, yet, to expect from export growth
Underlying price pressures rising, but feel free to ignore the breach of BI’s range

February 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ACTIVITY STABILISES AS POLICY PATHS DIVERGE

• DISINFLATION PROVES UNEVEN, WHILE POLITICAL RISK INTENSIFIES

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, January, 2025

• In one line: Activity softened at the start of the year.

PM Datanote: IPCA-15, Brazil, February, 2025

• In one line: Seasonal firmness, but disinflation remains intact.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February 2026

In one line: A slight downside surprise, offsetting upside surprises in France and Spain. 

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q4

• In one line: New series paints a more stable picture of recent years; ’statistical discrepancies’ no longer a bug-bear. 

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q4 2025

In one line: Growth will pick up further in 2026.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment and State CPIs, Germany, February 2026

In one line: Stability in the labour market, for now; state CPIs tilt dovish. 

EZ Datanote: ECB CES, Eurozone, January 2026

In one line: Still well above 2%, but little impact on the ECB’s reaction function. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Feb/Jan 2026

In one line: EZ inflation still looks dovish for February, but not enough to shift the ECB’s stance.