Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Consumers and firms look solid in April even if some borrowing was front-running rate hikes.
In one line: Korea inflation rise in May makes July hike likely
- In one line: Commodity-price boost to two-way trade is finally here.
- In one line: Food drives the initial bounce-back.
- In one line: Manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise.
ASEAN manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise
Food drives the initial bounce-back in Indonesian inflation
Commodity-price boost to Indonesian two-way trade is finally here
ECB WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO RISING INFLATION…
- …BUT HOW FAR WILL THE BANK GO?
LATAM’S DISINFLATION STORY IS BREAKING DOWN
- OIL, POLITICS AND FISCAL RISKS KEEP CENTRAL BANKS ON ALERT
- The jump in April job openings was driven by a sector where the first estimate usually is revised significantly.
- Other measures of openings have continued to trend down; low quits imply a real wage squeeze is ahead.
- We doubt that the recent acceleration in corporate profits signals a sharp cyclical upswing.
- US - NFP preview: the die is weighted toward a downside surprise
- EUROZONE - Inflation shock will sting real income growth in France in 2026
- UK - Corporate failures remain low, but Iran war will boost distress slightly
- CHINA+ - Korea’s chip-export bonanza allows BoK to focus on inflation risks
- EM ASIA - Thailand’s latest consumer stimulus will reshape—not re-energise—2026
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy enjoys solid Q1, but inflation clouds the outlook
- El Niño could complicate LatAm’s inflation outlook just as geopolitical risks keep energy prices elevated.
- Argentina stands to benefit, while Colombia faces the region’s largest inflation risk.
- Disruption to food, energy and logistics could widen macroeconomic divergences across the region.
- Indonesia’s small April trade surplus was due to seasonals; a C/A surplus in 2026 is now possible…
- …The big improvement in headline export growth was no fluke; the commodity lift will last till year-end.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast to 3.4%, but also lowered our 2027 call to 2.7%.
- China’s urban-renewal plan has unduly excited stock investors; it implies a modest boost for home demand…
- …The focus is urban investment, unlike the resettlement policy, which directly creates demand.
- New BoK Governor Shin on Monday again signalled a likely rate hike; May inflation surged on energy costs.
- Eurozone core and headline inflation rose further inMay, both matching our forecasts.
- The ECB will hike by 25bp next week, and we still look for a back-to-back rate increase in July.
- The EZ’s inflation fever is now breaking a bit, but we still see a rebound to 3.5% by the end of the year.
- We see few signs of changing saving patterns since the Iran war started; households are rejigging assets.
- Strong mortgage approvals and corporate credit flows suggest some front-running of rate hikes.
- But strong April credit growth—after mortgage rates spiked—suggests underlying demand is firm.
- Weak growth in headline manufacturing output in recent years is hiding a boom in advanced industriess.
- That’s a plus for productivity and US economic leadership, less so for manufacturing employment.
- The construction sector remains mired in recession; data center surge is offsetting little of wider malaise.
- Mr. de la Espriella enters Colombia’s run-off with momentum, likely backed by Ms. Valencia’s voters.
- Chile’s recovery remains fragile as mining weakness persists; non-mining sectors are struggling…
- …Business confidence points to a recovey ahead, but activity data remain stubbornly weak.
- Our final forecast sees India’s Q1 GDP slumping to 6.4%, well short of the 7.2% consensus…
- …We’re with the consensus that the RBI will hold; hawkish views look over-eager with CPI below 6%.
- May CPI for the Philippines and Thailand should come in softer than expected, at 7.5% and 2.3%.
- China’s May PMIs point to a short-term improvement in construction and manufacturing.
- Still, Q2 average industrial output growth is likely to be below 5%, raising the chances of targeted support.
- Domestic demand remains sluggish, with petrol-car sales almost halving year-over-year in May.
- Domestic demand, ex-inventories, in Switzerland was flat in Q1 amid volatile inventories and net trade.
- Swiss CPI likely rose to 0.9% in May, from 0.6%. The SNB will stand pat in Q2 but raise inflation forecasts.
- EZ money supply and German retail sales are slowing, but inflation expectations remain elevated.
