Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- The May Caixin services activity index hit its highest level for almost a year, thanks to holiday spending.
- Consumers are mostly opting for cheaper products, but this is starting to change as the recovery firms.
- Restrained services inflation is likely to continue, given the cautious optimism about future demand.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the ShuntÅÂÂ wage settlements started filtering through.
- That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
- Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s May manufacturing PMIs sent mixed signals, reflecting the uneven recovery.
- Production continues to power ahead of demand, which 60% of manufacturers view as “insufficient”.
- Stimulus funds have yet to boost construction, but steelmakers are optimistic about the year ahead.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoK stood pat in May, citing rising inflation risks due to strengthening economic conditions.
- The rate-cut timing is less certain now due to volatile expectations of the Fed’s move and geopolitical risk .
- Japan’s flash PMI surveys show tentative signs of growth broadening to manufacturing.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korean 20-day exports slowed sharply in May because of working-day effects.
- The underlying trend is actually improving after adjustment. Chip shipments remain the major driver.
- We expect no change at the upcoming BoK meeting but have pushed back our first rate cut to Q4.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP surprised the market to the downside, with growth turning negative.
- Weak domestic demand, such as business investment and consumption, was the culprit.
- The sluggish growth does not warrant an early rate hike, as markets suggest; we stick to our Q4 call.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China consumer prices rose in April, after volatility in Q1 caused by holidays and base effects.
- The CPI changes were driven by higher energy and core inflation, but domestic demand was still feeble.
- The PBoC will use “flexible, precise and effective” monetary policy to promote reflation.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged in April after the PBoC’s earlier decision to hold the MLF.
- The PBoC has less room to cut rates in the near term as market bets on a delayed Fed cut rate increase.
- Early Korean export data show strong memory-chip demand; US shipments remain solid.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s exports grew solidly in March, thanks to burgeoning Chinese demand and a weaker JPY.
- Demand from the US and EU slowed, car-related shipments fell sharply, but chip exports soared.
- The export recovery will be safeguarded by the ICT upturn, while capital goods demand should improve.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s inflation data point to lacklustre domestic demand post-New Year, while supply rose.
- Core CPI dropped sharply to half its long-run average; industry is still facing deflationary pressure.
- The US economy is steaming ahead, giving the PBoC
a dilemma: lower rates or keep RMB stable.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s Tankan for large manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in a year.
- The silver lining is optimism for the non-manufacturing sector, storming to its highest since 1991.
- Nothing in the survey will surprise the BoJ, and we expect interest rates to reach 0.20% by end-2024.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
- Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
- We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, while ending YCC and risky asset purchases.
- At the press conference, Governor Ueda’s rhetoric on the future path of the policy rate was neutral.
- Japan’s monetary policy should stay accommodative unless significant inflationary pressures mount.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s CPI rebounded due to the timing of Lunar New Year and stronger demand in food and services.
- By contrast, PPI slid further as deflationary pressure on upstream industries persists.
- We expect headline CPI disinflation to resume, and China continues to export deflation to rest of world.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s export growth increased in January-to-February, partly due to the low base from last year.
- Exports to emerging markets have risen noticeably, while shipments to ASEAN were flat.
- New measures are being proposed at the NPC to prop up domestic demand and the property market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Underlying growth in Korean exports was stronger in February, adjusted for working-day differences.
- Surging demand for semiconductors drove exports higher, thanks to a sustained ICT upturn.
- The BoK will start lowering rates only in Q3, owing to inflationary pressure and household-debt risks.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korean 20-day export annual growth fell sharply in February, due to the holiday effect...
- ...Working-day-adjusted data show exports actually increased, led by semiconductor shipments.
- Japan’s exports rose in January due to base effects, tallying with the chip ‘up-cycle’ in Korean trade.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s economy enters technical recession as it saw two successive quarters of negative growth.
- Despite lacklustre domestic demand, growth was supported by nascent recovery in external demand.
- BoJ is likely to remove negative rates in Q2 after the ShuntÅÂ wage rounds despite weak fundamentals.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s foreign-exchange reserves reversed the rising trend and fell in January, thanks to a valuation effect.
- The favourable external conditions that drove increases in Q4 have taken a breather.
- We expect modest capital inflows in H2, thanks to narrowing interest rate differentials with the US.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
