China’s current account surplus fell again in Q4, to just 1.5% of GDP
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA’S CREDIT DATA OFFER GLIMMERS OF HOPE
- - TOKYO CORE INFLATION DIPS BELOW BOJ’S TARGET
- - NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES HELP LIFT KOREAN EXPORTS
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s economy enters technical recession as it saw two successive quarters of negative growth.
- Despite lacklustre domestic demand, growth was supported by nascent recovery in external demand.
- BoJ is likely to remove negative rates in Q2 after the ShuntÅÂ wage rounds despite weak fundamentals.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The downward trend in China’s producer prices showed little sign of bottoming out in January.
- Consumer prices rose for a second straight month in January, but holiday-period data are noisy.
- A policy recalibration, rather than a major shift, to tackle weak demand is likely at the Two Sessions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s foreign-exchange reserves reversed the rising trend and fell in January, thanks to a valuation effect.
- The favourable external conditions that drove increases in Q4 have taken a breather.
- We expect modest capital inflows in H2, thanks to narrowing interest rate differentials with the US.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Caixin services PMI pointing to slower growth, while output prices are falling.
Japan’s service sector rosier than thought.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s January Caixin services PMI fell short of market expectations and signalled slower growth.
- Output prices fell for the first time in 21 months; firms are facing more market competition.
- Japan’s service industry is expanding faster than expected, but growth is largely based on tourism.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea export growth remains resilient even on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Chinese industrial profits have been recovering on a year-to-date basis since August 2023...
- ...On improvements in profit margins and industrial value-added, as well as easing producer deflation.
- Industrial profits will likely benefit from further stimulus measures slowly trickling through in H1.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's industrial profits continue to improve in December
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's Tokyo CPI Surprised on the Downside, Coming in Lowest in 22 Months
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The BoK keeps rates unchanged, hinting at easing
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's Services PMI Reports Higher Domestic Demand in December
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korean exports rise sharply on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again
Korea’s manufacturing activities steady in December
Korean export growth accelerates on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- December’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell for a third straight month, to the weakest level since June.
- The divergence between the official and the Caixin measures continues, especially on export orders.
- The government will rely more on fiscal policy in 2024. The PSL deployment is a quasi-fiscal example.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan’s inflation slows in November, thanks to easing food and core prices
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan National CPI slows sharply in November as cost-push factors ease
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
