Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, gauging the impact of other easing measures
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, as policymakers assess the impact of recent easing.
- Headline consumer inflation improved slightly in December, but core inflation remains sluggish.
- Excess capacity is likely to weigh on manufactured goods prices in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s M2 growth fell in December, amid soft mortgage loan demand.
- Government-bond issuance is supporting social financing growth, despite slowing loan growth.
- The PBoC announced an additional RMB500B PSL quota, to fund projects like urban redevelopment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufactured goods producer price decline is continuing unabated
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's price data indicate still-weak domestic demand
Exports lifted by new markets, autos
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoK keeps policy rate on hold, hinting at easing
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, while hinting at future easing in its statement...
- ...But Governor Rhee played down the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, worried about household debt.
- The BoK is likely to start easing in Q3; but a sharp KRW appreciation could bring forward that shift.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's wages are hit by slumping bonuses
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Cooling Tokyo inflation now basically in line with BoJ target
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer headline inflation continued to fall in December, as food inflation cooled.
- Core inflation is slowing, as high import costs pass through the system gradually.
- The BoJ will probably still exit its negative rate policy in Q2, despite slowing inflation and mediocre growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s foreign reserves posted a second straight strong rise in December, as U.S. yields fell.
- Both valuation effects and improved capital inflows drove the marked increase in reserves.
- China’s pro-growth policy tilt is seen in the firing of an official, after new gaming rules hit stock prices.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's foreign reserves rise, thanks to a narrowing yield gap
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s services sector is expanding at a faster pace; the PMI reports more domestic customers.
- The downturn in manufacturing intensified on demand uncertainty, both at home and abroad.
- The BoJ is likely to exit its negative rate policy in Q2, even if the economic backdrop does not warrant it.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin services PMI offers glimmers of hope
Japanese manufacturing activity is struggling
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
- ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
- Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Developer funding improved in November, thanks to regulatory support to ensure project completions.
- Home sales continue to fall steeply, but construction activity appears to be bottoming out at a low level.
- A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload properties.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA PRIORITISES RESTRUCTURING OVER GROWTH
- - FALLING INFLATION SHOULD DELAY BOJ TIGHTENING
- - BOK WORRIED ABOUT HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases
Duncan WrigleyChina+
