Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
- China’s social financing growth slowed a notch in January, due to less government-bond issuance.
- The jump in January net long-term new household loans is probably a blip; new-home sales are weak.
- The increase in M1 growth is a likely sign of stimulus funds improving business cash flow.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
M1 and credit growth beat expectations, thanks to stimulus
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufactured goods producer price decline stems partly from industrial spare capacity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's inflation data point to still-soft domestic demand, after filtering out the holiday noise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's nominal wage growth ticks up slightly in approach to spring talks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese nominal wage growth rose slightly in December but remains well below earlier highs..
- The continued decline in real wages, albeit easing, is dragging down real household spending.
- Disappointing tourism wages raise questions about the hoped-for transition to demand-push inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean export grow th remains resilient on a WDA basis, driven by surging microchip exports.
- Shipments to the US are still seeing strong growth, while Chinese demand is recovering.
- The recovery in Korean exports is expected to continue and hinges on the semiconductor upturn.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin index lifted by capital goods output and intermediate product exports
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin PMI still relatively strong
Korean manufacturers buoyed by new product launches, high-end chip exports
Japan PMI still weak
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January Caixin manufacturing PMI is still outperforming the official index.
- Rising investment goods output probably anticipates stimulus effects after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The Caixin services PMI should see a holiday bump, despite consumer caution over costly purchases.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing production steams ahead of new orders, as firms restock in anticipation of higher sales
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Official manufacturing PMI indicates restocking
Holiday effect provides modest lift to services activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January official manufacturing PMI points to an encouraging restocking cycle...
- ...Rising output and inventory readings suggest firms expect stimulus to boost domestic demand.
- Targeted funds for property support are arriving, but the recovery will still be protracted.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBOC's RRR cut is to facilitate fiscal stimulus as the main tool for growth support; Governor hints at LPR cut
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo CPI declined sharply to a 22-month low in January, driven by softer food and services inflation.
- Core inflation excluding fresh food and energy fell to an elevated 3.1%; signs of sustainable price growth.
- The BoJ is likely to end negative interest rates in April, even if the fundamentals are not ready.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA WILL STAY THE COURSE, DESPITE SLOWING GROWTH
- - BOJ IS LASER-FOCUSED ON WAGE NEGOTIATIONS
- - KOREAN EXPORTS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM CHIP UPCYCLE
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Still sluggish, hit by waning demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday announced an RRR cut; we see this as mainly to facilitate government-bond issuance.
- Governor Pan said RRR adjustments would drive down the LPR; a Q1 cut still seems likely.
- The big picture: China is relying on fiscal support to prop up growth, 2024 is likely to see token rate cuts.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ maintained its easy policy settings yesterday, while raising hopes for a change...
- ...Governor Ueda sees more chance of attaining the price target, given events in the spring wage talks.
- Q2 seems the most likely timing for negative rates to end, even if unwarranted by fundamentals.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ keeps policy steady; Governor Ueda confirms focus on the spring wage round
Duncan WrigleyChina+
