Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Non-manufacturing activity slows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s April PMIs reveal the initial hit from the tariff stand-off, with steep drops in new export orders.
- Neither the US nor China appears ready to relent at this stage, so further weakness lies ahead.
- China is rolling out an eclectic set of growth-support measures, but won’t go for mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ won't be moved by the jump Tokyo headline inflation due to a statistical quirk
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ won't be moved by the jump Tokyo headline inflation due to a statistical quirk
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Politburo meeting on Friday focused on growth and consumption, rather than tariffs directly.
- US doves want China to rebalance in favour of consumption, but no sign of talks being in the offing.
- Tokyo inflation jumped in April, due to a statistical quirk; the BoJ should stand pat on Thursday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Export orders plunge amid tariff chaos
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Export orders plunge amid tariff chaos
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth relied heavily on net exports, highlighting the need to boost domestic demand.
- But new residential-property sales have waned this year, notably in oversupplied markets.
- Policymakers will prioritise job creation by supporting consumer services and construction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s Q1 GDP growth was boosted by demand stimulus and export front-loading pre-tariff turmoil
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 growth was already cooling from the Q4 high; hence March’s additional fiscal stimulus.
- Front-loading effects also boosted March exports and industrial output, but this should prove fleeting.
- China will need to stoke domestic demand further, as exports risk hitting a wall in the coming quarters.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The March CKGSB index reports reviving Chinese business confidence, despite the imminent trade war.
- Funding conditions have improved thanks to policy support, though profits are under pressure.
- Robust government-bond issuance lifted broad credit growth in March; M1’s rise is somewhat encouraging.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Government bond issuance still taking centre stage, with modest uptick in household loans
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China acted as the adult in the room on Friday, saying it will not match any further US tariff hikes.
- This is hopefully the escalation off-ramp, paving the way for bilateral talks, probably in several months.
- Still, tariffs will likely remain high, hurting exports, worsening excess supply and so prolonging deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both the US and China seem to have dug in, making a short-term cessation of trade-war hostilities unlikely.
- More escalation is likely on the cards, but this could be the crisis that prompts China to boost consumption.
- The PBoC has started allowing RMB depreciation as part of the response, but it must tread carefully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both China and the US are posturing as the trade war escalates and markets plunge.
- China’s National Team appears to be intervening, with limited success, to soften the A-share market dive.
- The PBoC is likely to cut the RRR soon to boost confidence; government-bond issuance will speed up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's foreign reserves excluding valuation effects fell
Japan's real wage decline hurts consumption
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s all-out response on Friday to US tariff hikes is likely intended to get US-China talks going soon.
- We have cut our 2025 Japan GDP forecast by 0.2pp to 0.8%, due to the US tariff hikes announced last week.
- The BoJ is even more likely to hold fast on May 1, waiting for clarity, as Japan presses for lower tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike;
Caixin services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China will seek to prop up domestic demand in response to the US tariff hikes…
- …But this won’t mitigate the hit to growth fully, so we cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp, to 4.0%.
- Serious trade talks are likely to get underway soon, but the US is unlikely to roll back the tariff hikes fully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
