Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Duncan Wrigley

Global Datanote: Politburo, China, Q2

In one line: China's Q2 Politburo meeting downplays trade risks, focuses on domestic issues like price wars

Duncan WrigleyGlobal

1 August 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ strikes a cautious tone, while staying put on interest rates

  • The BoJ yesterday kept the policy rate on hold at 0.5%, as widely expected.
  • The Bank remains cautious about the growth outlook, despite the US-Japan trade deal.
  • The BoJ did raise its inflation forecast though, because of food inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's Politburo strikes confident tone about trade risks

  • H1 went quite well, all things considered, but China still wants to project a strong image to the world.
  • China’s new residential sales weakened further in the first four weeks of July.
  • The new child-rearing subsidies are a step in the right direction, but small by international standards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 25 July 2025: Tokyo headline inflation slows

Tokyo headline inflation slows, despite rising food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 July 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ will focus on rising food inflation in Tokyo CPI data

  • Tokyo headline inflation declined in July, due to energy subsidies for households.
  • But the BoJ will focus on the upward creep in food inflation, despite rice inflation slowing in some data.
  • The Bank is likely to take a somewhat rosier view of growth prospects at this Thursday’s meeting.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

Global Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, July

In one line: manufacturing index slammed by falling output; July should be low point after US-Japan trade deal

Duncan WrigleyGlobal

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 July 2025: Japan's PMI should improve after deal

Japan's weak manufacturing PMI should rise after US-Japan trade deal

Services activity rose

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 July 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ official hints at brightening growth outlook after trade deal

  • Deputy Governor Uchida said on Wednesday that the US-Japan tariff deal reduces uncertainty...
  • ...hinting that the BoJ will revise up its growth and inflation outlook next week.
  • The July composite flash PMI was steady, though services and manufacturing activity diverged.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's trade deal should bring forward BoJ's next rate hike

  • We are raising our growth and inflation forecasts for Japan, after yesterday’s relatively benign trade deal.
  • The BoJ is likely to resume rate hikes in October, as it forms an initial view on the 2026 wage outlook.
  • USDJPY is likely to strengthen moderately; but political risk was evident in the 40-year JGB auction yesterday.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

Global Datanote: CPI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart; upper house election poses JGB risks

Duncan WrigleyGlobal

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 July 2025: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows

Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart
upper house election poses JGB risks

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 July 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ likely to focus on food inflation and bond markets

  • Headline consumer inflation eased in June, as energy subsidies took effect.
  • Rice prices are star ting to fall week-to-week, but broader food inflation is picking up.
  • The bond market will probably be jittery after the Upper House election yesterday.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

16 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation

  • .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
  • …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
  • Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 July 2025: China's real GDP steady, with steeper deflation

China's steadyish Q2 real GDP growth boosted by intensifying deflation; nominal growth lowest since Q4 2022

Duncan WrigleyChina+

15 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's 'glass half-full' money and credit data

  • China’s broad credit growth rose in June, but mainly thanks to government-bond issuance. 
  • The rise in corporate borrowing is distorted by the local-government debt swap; it’s likely still sluggish. 
  • M1 jump is hopeful but may prove a blip given the lack of supporting data elsewhere pointing to an upturn. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves rise due to valuation effects and exports

  • Valuation effects explain 60% of China’s foreign exchange reserves rise in June.
  • A rush to ship exports ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline likely contributed to the rise in reserves.
  • Beijing’s moderate 2030 consumption growth target offers clues about China’s growth strategy.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

Global Datanote: PPI, China, June 2025

  • In one line: Producer deflation worsens due to weather hitting construction, a jump in renewable energy generation and trade frictions

Duncan WrigleyGlobal

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 July 2025: China's producer deflation worsens

China's worsening producer deflation mainly due to bad weather
Low core consumer inflation reflects weak demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's producer deflation steepens as supply-side policy is planned

  • China’s producer deflation is entrenched, but the worsening in June was due to temporary factors.
  • Auto prices rose, after firms pledged faster supplier payments; other sectors are making supply policies.
  • Weak core consumer inflation is indicative of poor demand; all eyes on the end-month Politburo meeting.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's wages hit by plunging bonuses, as trade war bites

  • Japan’s wages took a big knock from a bonus plunge in May, as exporters’ profits were hurt by the tariff war.
  • The headline large-manufacturer Tankan was oddly steady in Q2, despite the tariff war.
  • Consumption still looks soft, despite one-off factors boosting May’s household spending data.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
 

Sign up for your complimentary trial

To start your complimentary trial, highlight the areas you are interested in subscribing to and click next.

United States

Eurozone

United Kingdom

China +

Emerging Asia

Latin America

Next

 
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence